Models
TATA POWER CO LTDTATAPOWERPower
₹-87per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(87)implied FY26 P/E (7.2)× · EV/EBITDA 3.0×
Against CMP ₹364.65−123.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies33.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3199%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(122)₹(16)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹343₹465
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 447 |
| PV of terminal value | 38,531 |
| Enterprise value | 38,979 |
| less net debt | (66,713) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (27,734) |
| ÷ 319.56 crore shares | ₹(87) |
99% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (82) | (70) | (56) | (38) | (16) |
| 10.50% | (94) | (84) | (73) | (58) | (41) |
| 11.00% | (105) | (97) | (87) | (75) | (61) |
| 11.50% | (114) | (107) | (99) | (89) | (78) |
| 12.00% | (122) | (116) | (109) | (101) | (91) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹364.65; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (122) · (86) · (47) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.50 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 55,109 | 61,449 | 65,478 | 62,429 | 59,619 | 56,936 | 54,374 | 51,927 | 49,591 |
| growth % | 28.7 | 11.5 | 6.6 | (4.7) | (4.5) | (4.5) | (4.5) | (4.5) | (4.5) |
| EBITDA | 7,706 | 11,057 | 13,808 | 13,001 | 12,401 | 11,843 | 11,310 | 10,801 | 10,315 |
| margin % | 14.0 | 18.0 | 21.1 | 20.8 | 20.8 | 20.8 | 20.8 | 20.8 | 20.8 |
| less depreciation | (3,439) | (3,786) | (4,117) | (4,811) | (4,591) | (4,384) | (4,187) | (3,998) | (3,818) |
| EBIT | 4,267 | 7,271 | 9,691 | 8,190 | 7,810 | 7,459 | 7,123 | 6,802 | 6,496 |
| less tax on EBIT | (2,662) | (2,538) | (2,424) | (2,315) | (2,211) | (2,111) | |||
| NOPAT | 5,528 | 5,272 | 5,035 | 4,808 | 4,592 | 4,385 | |||
| add depreciation | 3,439 | 3,786 | 4,117 | 4,811 | 4,591 | 4,384 | 4,187 | 3,998 | 3,818 |
| less capex | (7,656) | (13,333) | (17,273) | (13,695) | (13,057) | (10,667) | (8,466) | (6,442) | (4,582) |
| less working-capital build | — | 107 | 102 | 97 | 93 | 89 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (497) | (737) | (4,593) | — | (3,087) | (1,146) | 626 | 2,241 | 3,710 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (2,930) | (980) | 482 | 1,556 | 2,320 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 71,122, dividends at 29.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 8,190 | 7,810 | 7,459 | 7,123 | 6,802 | 6,496 |
| Interest at 8.1% on debt | (5,761) | (5,761) | (5,761) | (5,761) | (5,761) | |
| Profit before tax | 2,049 | 1,698 | 1,362 | 1,042 | 735 | |
| Profit after tax | 3,747 | 1,383 | 1,146 | 919 | 703 | 496 |
| Dividends | (1,114) | (411) | (340) | (273) | (209) | (147) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 4,410 | (2,977) | (8,352) | (11,888) | (13,744) | (14,070) |
| Working capital | 2,395 | 2,288 | 2,186 | 2,088 | 1,995 | 1,907 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,68,368 | 1,76,834 | 1,83,116 | 1,87,396 | 1,89,839 | 1,90,603 |
| Debt | 71,122 | 71,122 | 71,122 | 71,122 | 71,122 | 71,122 |
| Equity | 47,538 | 48,510 | 49,316 | 49,962 | 50,457 | 50,806 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 6,081 | 5,632 | 5,204 | 4,794 | 4,404 | |
| Investing (capex) | (13,057) | (10,667) | (8,466) | (6,442) | (4,582) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (411) | (340) | (273) | (209) | (147) | |
| Net change in cash | (7,387) | (5,375) | (3,536) | (1,856) | (326) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (6,976) | (5,035) | (3,262) | (1,647) | (178) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -4.5% | 20.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(87) | (123.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.