Models
TATA STEEL LIMITEDTATASTEELFerrous Metals
₹98per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹98implied FY26 P/E 11.1× · EV/EBITDA 6.2×
Against CMP ₹183.00−46.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies21.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹61₹172
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹160₹224
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 50,474 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,55,625 |
| Enterprise value | 2,06,100 |
| less net debt | (83,497) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,22,603 |
| ÷ 1,248.60 crore shares | ₹98 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 104 | 116 | 131 | 149 | 172 |
| 10.50% | 91 | 101 | 113 | 128 | 146 |
| 11.00% | 79 | 88 | 98 | 110 | 125 |
| 11.50% | 70 | 77 | 86 | 96 | 107 |
| 12.00% | 61 | 68 | 75 | 83 | 93 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹183.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 60 · 97 · 139 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.84 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.15 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,43,353 | 2,29,171 | 2,18,543 | 2,32,140 | 2,46,068 | 2,60,832 | 2,76,482 | 2,93,071 | 3,10,656 |
| growth % | (0.2) | (5.8) | (4.6) | 6.2 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| EBITDA | 32,413 | 14,492 | 24,444 | 33,320 | 35,434 | 37,560 | 39,813 | 42,202 | 44,734 |
| margin % | 13.3 | 6.3 | 11.2 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 14.4 |
| less depreciation | (9,335) | (9,882) | (10,421) | (11,955) | (12,549) | (13,302) | (14,101) | (14,947) | (15,843) |
| EBIT | 23,078 | 4,610 | 14,022 | 21,365 | 22,884 | 24,257 | 25,713 | 27,256 | 28,891 |
| less tax on EBIT | (6,965) | (7,460) | (7,908) | (8,382) | (8,885) | (9,418) | |||
| NOPAT | 14,400 | 15,424 | 16,349 | 17,330 | 18,370 | 19,473 | |||
| add depreciation | 9,335 | 9,882 | 10,421 | 11,955 | 12,549 | 13,302 | 14,101 | 14,947 | 15,843 |
| less capex | (14,142) | (18,207) | (15,671) | (14,559) | (15,502) | (16,315) | (17,170) | (18,068) | (19,012) |
| less working-capital build | — | (1,045) | (1,107) | (1,174) | (1,244) | (1,319) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 7,541 | 2,094 | 7,841 | — | 11,427 | 12,230 | 13,088 | 14,005 | 14,985 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 10,846 | 10,457 | 10,082 | 9,720 | 9,369 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 92,382, dividends at 41.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 21,365 | 22,884 | 24,257 | 25,713 | 27,256 | 28,891 |
| Interest at 7.7% on debt | (7,113) | (7,113) | (7,113) | (7,113) | (7,113) | |
| Profit before tax | 15,771 | 17,144 | 18,599 | 20,142 | 21,778 | |
| Profit after tax | 10,794 | 10,630 | 11,555 | 12,536 | 13,576 | 14,678 |
| Dividends | (4,490) | (4,422) | (4,807) | (5,215) | (5,648) | (6,106) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 8,885 | 11,095 | 13,723 | 16,802 | 20,365 | 24,449 |
| Working capital | 17,363 | 18,407 | 19,515 | 20,688 | 21,933 | 23,251 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,75,006 | 2,77,959 | 2,80,972 | 2,84,041 | 2,87,162 | 2,90,331 |
| Debt | 92,382 | 92,382 | 92,382 | 92,382 | 92,382 | 92,382 |
| Equity | 1,03,780 | 1,09,988 | 1,16,736 | 1,24,057 | 1,31,986 | 1,40,558 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 22,134 | 23,750 | 25,463 | 27,278 | 29,203 | |
| Investing (capex) | (15,502) | (16,315) | (17,170) | (18,068) | (19,012) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (4,422) | (4,807) | (5,215) | (5,648) | (6,106) | |
| Net change in cash | 2,210 | 2,628 | 3,078 | 3,563 | 4,084 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 6,632 | 7,435 | 8,293 | 9,210 | 10,191 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 6% | 14.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹98 | (46.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.