Models
TCI EXPRESS LIMITEDTCIEXPTransport Services
₹199per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹199implied FY26 P/E 9.0× · EV/EBITDA 6.3×
Against CMP ₹514.80−61.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3194%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹143₹310
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹448₹780
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 48 |
| PV of terminal value | 731 |
| Enterprise value | 779 |
| less net debt | (17) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 762 |
| ÷ 3.84 crore shares | ₹199 |
94% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 206 | 225 | 248 | 276 | 310 |
| 10.50% | 187 | 202 | 221 | 243 | 271 |
| 11.00% | 170 | 183 | 199 | 217 | 239 |
| 11.50% | 155 | 167 | 180 | 195 | 213 |
| 12.00% | 143 | 152 | 163 | 176 | 191 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹514.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 153 · 197 · 249 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.04 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,241 | 1,254 | 1,208 | 1,238 | 1,268 | 1,300 | 1,333 | 1,366 | 1,400 |
| growth % | — | 1.0 | (3.6) | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| EBITDA | 194 | 187 | 125 | 123 | 126 | 129 | 132 | 135 | 139 |
| margin % | 15.7 | 14.9 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 9.9 |
| less depreciation | (15) | (19) | (22) | (26) | (27) | (27) | (28) | (29) | (29) |
| EBIT | 179 | 168 | 103 | 97 | 99 | 101 | 104 | 107 | 109 |
| less tax on EBIT | (25) | (26) | (27) | (27) | (28) | (29) | |||
| NOPAT | 72 | 73 | 75 | 77 | 79 | 81 | |||
| add depreciation | 15 | 19 | 22 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 29 |
| less capex | (126) | (52) | (51) | (125) | (128) | (107) | (84) | (60) | (35) |
| less working-capital build | — | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 21 | 84 | 68 | — | (32) | (9) | 16 | 43 | 70 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (31) | (7) | 13 | 30 | 44 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 33, dividends at 42.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 97 | 99 | 101 | 104 | 107 | 109 |
| Interest at 6.4% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 97 | 99 | 102 | 104 | 107 | |
| Profit after tax | 81 | 71 | 73 | 75 | 77 | 79 |
| Dividends | (35) | (30) | (31) | (32) | (33) | (34) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 16 | (48) | (89) | (107) | (98) | (63) |
| Working capital | 157 | 161 | 165 | 169 | 174 | 178 |
| Net block and other assets | 851 | 953 | 1,032 | 1,088 | 1,120 | 1,126 |
| Debt | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 |
| Equity | 819 | 860 | 902 | 945 | 990 | 1,035 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 94 | 97 | 99 | 102 | 104 | |
| Investing (capex) | (128) | (107) | (84) | (60) | (35) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (30) | (31) | (32) | (33) | (34) | |
| Net change in cash | (64) | (41) | (17) | 8 | 35 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (34) | (10) | 15 | 41 | 69 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 2.5% | 9.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹199 | (61.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.