Models
TCPL PACKAGING LIMITEDTCPLPACKIndustrial Products
₹1,119per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,119implied FY26 P/E 8.8× · EV/EBITDA 5.7×
Against CMP ₹3,862.10−71.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹710₹1,936
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,200₹4,411
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 325 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,258 |
| Enterprise value | 1,583 |
| less net debt | (565) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,018 |
| ÷ 0.91 crore shares | ₹1,119 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,178 | 1,316 | 1,481 | 1,683 | 1,936 |
| 10.50% | 1,034 | 1,148 | 1,284 | 1,446 | 1,644 |
| 11.00% | 910 | 1,007 | 1,119 | 1,252 | 1,411 |
| 11.50% | 804 | 886 | 980 | 1,091 | 1,221 |
| 12.00% | 710 | 781 | 861 | 954 | 1,063 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3,862.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 732 · 1,108 · 1,534 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.52 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,442 | 1,513 | 1,770 | 1,810 | 1,855 | 1,902 | 1,949 | 1,998 | 2,048 |
| growth % | 35.4 | 4.9 | 17.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| EBITDA | 221 | 223 | 293 | 279 | 286 | 293 | 300 | 308 | 315 |
| margin % | 15.3 | 14.7 | 16.6 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 |
| less depreciation | (64) | (72) | (75) | (83) | (85) | (87) | (90) | (92) | (94) |
| EBIT | 157 | 151 | 218 | 195 | 200 | 205 | 211 | 216 | 221 |
| less tax on EBIT | (60) | (62) | (63) | (65) | (66) | (68) | |||
| NOPAT | 135 | 139 | 142 | 146 | 149 | 153 | |||
| add depreciation | 64 | 72 | 75 | 83 | 85 | 87 | 90 | 92 | 94 |
| less capex | (100) | (146) | (159) | (154) | (158) | (147) | (137) | (125) | (113) |
| less working-capital build | — | (12) | (12) | (12) | (13) | (13) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 9 | 88 | (26) | — | 54 | 70 | 86 | 103 | 121 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 52 | 60 | 66 | 72 | 76 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 575, dividends at 27.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 195 | 200 | 205 | 211 | 216 | 221 |
| Interest at 13.6% on debt | (78) | (78) | (78) | (78) | (78) | |
| Profit before tax | 122 | 127 | 132 | 138 | 143 | |
| Profit after tax | 98 | 85 | 88 | 92 | 95 | 99 |
| Dividends | (27) | (24) | (25) | (26) | (27) | (28) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 9 | (14) | (23) | (16) | 7 | 46 |
| Working capital | 475 | 486 | 499 | 511 | 524 | 537 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,232 | 1,305 | 1,365 | 1,412 | 1,445 | 1,464 |
| Debt | 575 | 575 | 575 | 575 | 575 | 575 |
| Equity | 719 | 780 | 843 | 909 | 978 | 1,049 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 158 | 163 | 169 | 174 | 180 | |
| Investing (capex) | (158) | (147) | (137) | (125) | (113) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (24) | (25) | (26) | (27) | (28) | |
| Net change in cash | (23) | (9) | 7 | 23 | 39 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 0 | 16 | 32 | 49 | 67 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 2.5% | 15.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,119 | (71.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.