Models
TD POWER SYSTEMS LTD.TDPOWERSYSElectrical Equipment
₹72per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹72implied FY26 P/E 4.1× · EV/EBITDA 3.2×
Against CMP ₹802.75−91.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31104%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹52₹114
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (40) |
| PV of terminal value | 1,109 |
| Enterprise value | 1,069 |
| less net debt | 60 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,129 |
| ÷ 15.62 crore shares | ₹72 |
104% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 75 | 82 | 91 | 101 | 114 |
| 10.50% | 68 | 74 | 81 | 89 | 99 |
| 11.00% | 62 | 67 | 72 | 79 | 87 |
| 11.50% | 56 | 60 | 65 | 71 | 78 |
| 12.00% | 52 | 55 | 59 | 64 | 70 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹802.75; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (73) · 71 · 167 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.76 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.62 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.09 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 872 | 1,001 | 1,279 | 1,856 | 2,413 | 3,137 | 4,078 | 5,302 | 6,892 |
| growth % | 9.4 | 14.7 | 27.8 | 45.2 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 132 | 167 | 231 | 330 | 430 | 558 | 726 | 944 | 1,227 |
| margin % | 15.1 | 16.7 | 18.0 | 17.8 | 17.8 | 17.8 | 17.8 | 17.8 | 17.8 |
| less depreciation | (21) | (21) | (20) | (23) | (29) | (38) | (49) | (64) | (83) |
| EBIT | 111 | 146 | 211 | 307 | 401 | 521 | 677 | 880 | 1,144 |
| less tax on EBIT | (82) | (107) | (140) | (181) | (236) | (307) | |||
| NOPAT | 225 | 293 | 381 | 496 | 644 | 837 | |||
| add depreciation | 21 | 21 | 20 | 23 | 29 | 38 | 49 | 64 | 83 |
| less capex | (16) | (23) | (52) | (106) | (138) | (145) | (146) | (133) | (99) |
| less working-capital build | — | (250) | (325) | (423) | (549) | (714) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 73 | 61 | (13) | — | (65) | (52) | (24) | 26 | 107 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (62) | (44) | (18) | 18 | 67 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 18, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 307 | 401 | 521 | 677 | 880 | 1,144 |
| Interest at 12.6% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 398 | 518 | 675 | 878 | 1,142 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 292 | 380 | 494 | 643 | 836 |
| Dividends | (26) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 78 | 11 | (42) | (67) | (43) | 62 |
| Working capital | 834 | 1,084 | 1,409 | 1,831 | 2,380 | 3,095 |
| Net block and other assets | 965 | 1,073 | 1,181 | 1,278 | 1,347 | 1,363 |
| Debt | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| Equity | 1,072 | 1,363 | 1,743 | 2,237 | 2,879 | 3,715 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 70 | 92 | 120 | 157 | 204 | |
| Investing (capex) | (138) | (145) | (146) | (133) | (99) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (67) | (53) | (25) | 24 | 105 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (67) | (53) | (25) | 24 | 105 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 17.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹72 | (91.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.