₹573per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹573implied FY26 P/E 6.5× · EV/EBITDA 5.5×
Against CMP ₹1,238.30−53.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3165%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹478₹763
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,065₹1,944
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 291 |
| PV of terminal value | 535 |
| Enterprise value | 825 |
| less net debt | 136 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 961 |
| ÷ 1.68 crore shares | ₹573 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 588 | 620 | 658 | 705 | 763 |
| 10.50% | 554 | 581 | 612 | 649 | 695 |
| 11.00% | 525 | 547 | 573 | 604 | 641 |
| 11.50% | 500 | 519 | 541 | 566 | 596 |
| 12.00% | 478 | 494 | 513 | 534 | 559 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,238.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 391 · 570 · 748 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.39 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.26 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,870 | 9,322 | 11,156 | 11,791 | 12,439 | 13,123 | 13,845 | 14,607 | 15,410 |
| growth % | 21.5 | 18.4 | 19.7 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| EBITDA | 120 | 134 | 138 | 151 | 162 | 171 | 180 | 190 | 200 |
| margin % | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| less depreciation | (43) | (53) | (54) | (56) | (62) | (66) | (69) | (73) | (77) |
| EBIT | 77 | 82 | 84 | 95 | 100 | 105 | 111 | 117 | 123 |
| less tax on EBIT | (6) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (7) | |||
| NOPAT | 89 | 94 | 99 | 104 | 110 | 116 | |||
| add depreciation | 43 | 53 | 54 | 56 | 62 | 66 | 69 | 73 | 77 |
| less capex | (6) | (7) | (31) | (29) | (25) | (39) | (55) | (73) | (92) |
| less working-capital build | — | (40) | (42) | (44) | (46) | (49) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 120 | 111 | 73 | — | 91 | 83 | 74 | 63 | 51 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 87 | 71 | 57 | 44 | 32 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 34, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 95 | 100 | 105 | 111 | 117 | 123 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Profit before tax | 97 | 102 | 108 | 114 | 121 | |
| Profit after tax | 140 | 91 | 96 | 102 | 107 | 113 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 170 | 258 | 339 | 410 | 471 | 520 |
| Working capital | 720 | 760 | 802 | 846 | 892 | 941 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,910 | 1,873 | 1,847 | 1,833 | 1,833 | 1,848 |
| Debt | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 |
| Equity | 1,060 | 1,151 | 1,247 | 1,348 | 1,456 | 1,569 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 114 | 120 | 127 | 134 | 141 | |
| Investing (capex) | (25) | (39) | (55) | (73) | (92) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 89 | 81 | 71 | 61 | 49 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 89 | 81 | 71 | 61 | 49 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5.5% | 1.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹573 | (53.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.