Models
TECH MAHINDRA LIMITEDTECHMIT - Software
₹876per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹876implied FY26 P/E 15.1× · EV/EBITDA 9.5×
Against CMP ₹1,541.00−43.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies36.1%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹694₹1,237
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,304₹1,854
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 23,214 |
| PV of terminal value | 59,725 |
| Enterprise value | 82,939 |
| less net debt | 2,860 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 85,799 |
| ÷ 98.00 crore shares | ₹876 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 903 | 963 | 1,036 | 1,125 | 1,237 |
| 10.50% | 838 | 889 | 949 | 1,020 | 1,108 |
| 11.00% | 783 | 826 | 876 | 934 | 1,004 |
| 11.50% | 736 | 772 | 814 | 862 | 920 |
| 12.00% | 694 | 725 | 761 | 802 | 850 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,541.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 721 · 868 · 1,049 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.58 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.19 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 53,290 | 51,995 | 52,988 | 56,815 | 60,792 | 65,048 | 69,601 | 74,473 | 79,687 |
| growth % | 19.4 | (2.4) | 1.9 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| EBITDA | 7,763 | 4,517 | 6,972 | 8,760 | 9,362 | 10,017 | 10,719 | 11,469 | 12,272 |
| margin % | 14.6 | 8.7 | 13.2 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 |
| less depreciation | (1,957) | (1,817) | (1,853) | (1,882) | (2,006) | (2,147) | (2,297) | (2,458) | (2,630) |
| EBIT | 5,806 | 2,700 | 5,120 | 6,879 | 7,356 | 7,871 | 8,422 | 9,011 | 9,642 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1,850) | (1,979) | (2,117) | (2,265) | (2,424) | (2,594) | |||
| NOPAT | 5,028 | 5,377 | 5,754 | 6,156 | 6,587 | 7,048 | |||
| add depreciation | 1,957 | 1,817 | 1,853 | 1,882 | 2,006 | 2,147 | 2,297 | 2,458 | 2,630 |
| less capex | (1,015) | (791) | (594) | (696) | (730) | (1,229) | (1,796) | (2,435) | (3,156) |
| less working-capital build | — | (589) | (630) | (674) | (721) | (772) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 4,557 | 5,585 | 5,192 | — | 6,065 | 6,041 | 5,984 | 5,889 | 5,751 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 5,757 | 5,166 | 4,609 | 4,087 | 3,596 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,186, dividends at 83.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 6,879 | 7,356 | 7,871 | 8,422 | 9,011 | 9,642 |
| Interest at 16% on debt | (350) | (350) | (350) | (350) | (350) | |
| Profit before tax | 7,006 | 7,521 | 8,072 | 8,661 | 9,292 | |
| Profit after tax | 4,811 | 5,121 | 5,498 | 5,901 | 6,332 | 6,793 |
| Dividends | (4,026) | (4,287) | (4,602) | (4,939) | (5,300) | (5,685) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 5,046 | 6,569 | 7,752 | 8,541 | 8,875 | 8,685 |
| Working capital | 8,421 | 9,010 | 9,640 | 10,313 | 11,035 | 11,806 |
| Net block and other assets | 35,902 | 34,626 | 33,708 | 33,207 | 33,185 | 33,711 |
| Debt | 2,186 | 2,186 | 2,186 | 2,186 | 2,186 | 2,186 |
| Equity | 30,077 | 30,912 | 31,808 | 32,770 | 33,802 | 34,909 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 6,539 | 7,015 | 7,524 | 8,068 | 8,651 | |
| Investing (capex) | (730) | (1,229) | (1,796) | (2,435) | (3,156) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (4,287) | (4,602) | (4,939) | (5,300) | (5,685) | |
| Net change in cash | 1,523 | 1,184 | 789 | 333 | (190) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 5,809 | 5,785 | 5,728 | 5,633 | 5,495 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7% | 15.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹876 | (43.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.