Models
TEGA INDUSTRIES LIMITEDTEGAIndustrial Manufacturing
₹235per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹235implied FY26 P/E 62.0× · EV/EBITDA 4.0×
Against CMP ₹1,728.00−86.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹207₹291
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,473₹2,125
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 200 |
| PV of terminal value | 718 |
| Enterprise value | 918 |
| less net debt | 846 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,764 |
| ÷ 7.51 crore shares | ₹235 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 239 | 248 | 260 | 274 | 291 |
| 10.50% | 229 | 237 | 246 | 257 | 271 |
| 11.00% | 220 | 227 | 235 | 244 | 255 |
| 11.50% | 213 | 219 | 225 | 233 | 242 |
| 12.00% | 207 | 211 | 217 | 223 | 231 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,728.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 195 · 234 · 274 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.91 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.35 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.14 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,214 | 1,493 | 1,639 | 1,692 | 1,751 | 1,812 | 1,876 | 1,942 | 2,009 |
| growth % | 27.6 | 23.0 | 9.8 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| EBITDA | 270 | 316 | 340 | 231 | 240 | 248 | 257 | 266 | 275 |
| margin % | 22.3 | 21.2 | 20.7 | 13.7 | 13.7 | 13.7 | 13.7 | 13.7 | 13.7 |
| less depreciation | (41) | (64) | (101) | (95) | (98) | (101) | (105) | (109) | (113) |
| EBIT | 229 | 252 | 238 | 136 | 142 | 147 | 152 | 157 | 163 |
| less tax on EBIT | (41) | (43) | (44) | (46) | (47) | (49) | |||
| NOPAT | 95 | 99 | 103 | 106 | 110 | 114 | |||
| add depreciation | 41 | 64 | 101 | 95 | 98 | 101 | 105 | 109 | 113 |
| less capex | (92) | (55) | (170) | (136) | (140) | (139) | (138) | (137) | (135) |
| less working-capital build | — | (19) | (20) | (21) | (22) | (22) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 86 | 197 | 25 | — | 38 | 45 | 53 | 61 | 69 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 36 | 38 | 40 | 42 | 43 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 318, dividends at 9.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 136 | 142 | 147 | 152 | 157 | 163 |
| Interest at 7.8% on debt | (25) | (25) | (25) | (25) | (25) | |
| Profit before tax | 117 | 122 | 127 | 132 | 138 | |
| Profit after tax | 143 | 82 | 85 | 89 | 93 | 97 |
| Dividends | (13) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (9) | (9) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,164 | 1,177 | 1,196 | 1,223 | 1,258 | 1,301 |
| Working capital | 555 | 575 | 595 | 616 | 637 | 659 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,595 | 2,637 | 2,675 | 2,708 | 2,736 | 2,758 |
| Debt | 318 | 318 | 318 | 318 | 318 | 318 |
| Equity | 3,407 | 3,482 | 3,559 | 3,640 | 3,724 | 3,811 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 161 | 167 | 173 | 180 | 187 | |
| Investing (capex) | (140) | (139) | (138) | (137) | (135) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (9) | (9) | |
| Net change in cash | 13 | 20 | 27 | 35 | 43 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 20 | 28 | 35 | 43 | 52 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3.5% | 13.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹235 | (86.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.