Models
TEMBO GLOBAL IND LTDTEMBOIndustrial Products
₹66per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹66implied FY26 P/E 0.7× · EV/EBITDA 10.6×
Against CMP ₹56.01+18.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies2.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3199%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹43₹114
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹55₹69
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 18 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,531 |
| Enterprise value | 1,549 |
| less net debt | (291) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,258 |
| ÷ 18.95 crore shares | ₹66 |
99% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 70 | 78 | 87 | 99 | 114 |
| 10.50% | 61 | 68 | 76 | 85 | 97 |
| 11.00% | 54 | 60 | 66 | 74 | 83 |
| 11.50% | 48 | 53 | 58 | 65 | 72 |
| 12.00% | 43 | 47 | 52 | 57 | 63 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹56.01; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 32 · 64 · 96 |
| Draws below the CMP | 36% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.88 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.36 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.22 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 250 | 432 | 743 | 1,090 | 1,417 | 1,842 | 2,395 | 3,114 | 4,048 |
| growth % | 42.0 | 73.0 | 72.0 | 46.7 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 13 | 19 | 92 | 146 | 190 | 247 | 321 | 417 | 542 |
| margin % | 5.4 | 4.5 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.4 |
| less depreciation | (3) | (3) | (2) | (7) | (9) | (11) | (14) | (19) | (24) |
| EBIT | 11 | 17 | 89 | 140 | 181 | 236 | 307 | 399 | 518 |
| less tax on EBIT | (34) | (44) | (57) | (74) | (96) | (125) | |||
| NOPAT | 106 | 138 | 179 | 233 | 303 | 393 | |||
| add depreciation | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 19 | 24 |
| less capex | (7) | 0 | (82) | (97) | (126) | (126) | (115) | (86) | (29) |
| less working-capital build | — | (84) | (110) | (143) | (185) | (241) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (6) | (7) | (285) | — | (64) | (46) | (11) | 50 | 147 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (61) | (39) | (8) | 34 | 92 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 377, dividends at 3.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 140 | 181 | 236 | 307 | 399 | 518 |
| Interest at 7.9% on debt | (30) | (30) | (30) | (30) | (30) | |
| Profit before tax | 152 | 206 | 277 | 369 | 488 | |
| Profit after tax | 91 | 115 | 156 | 210 | 280 | 371 |
| Dividends | (3) | (4) | (5) | (7) | (9) | (12) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 85 | (6) | (79) | (120) | (102) | 11 |
| Working capital | 282 | 366 | 476 | 618 | 804 | 1,045 |
| Net block and other assets | 940 | 1,057 | 1,172 | 1,273 | 1,341 | 1,346 |
| Debt | 377 | 377 | 377 | 377 | 377 | 377 |
| Equity | 492 | 603 | 754 | 958 | 1,228 | 1,587 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 39 | 58 | 82 | 113 | 154 | |
| Investing (capex) | (126) | (126) | (115) | (86) | (29) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (4) | (5) | (7) | (9) | (12) | |
| Net change in cash | (91) | (74) | (40) | 18 | 113 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (87) | (69) | (33) | 27 | 125 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 13.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹66 | 18.5% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.