Models
TEXMACO RAIL & ENG. LTD.TEXRAILIndustrial Manufacturing
₹59per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹59implied FY26 P/E 11.0× · EV/EBITDA 8.2×
Against CMP ₹118.69−50.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹41₹93
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹78₹153
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 789 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,379 |
| Enterprise value | 3,168 |
| less net debt | (783) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,385 |
| ÷ 40.69 crore shares | ₹59 |
75% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 61 | 67 | 74 | 83 | 93 |
| 10.50% | 55 | 60 | 66 | 72 | 81 |
| 11.00% | 50 | 54 | 59 | 64 | 71 |
| 11.50% | 45 | 49 | 53 | 57 | 63 |
| 12.00% | 41 | 44 | 48 | 52 | 56 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹118.69; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 48 · 59 · 72 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.80 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.58 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,243 | 3,503 | 5,107 | 4,377 | 4,158 | 3,950 | 3,753 | 3,565 | 3,387 |
| growth % | 38.3 | 56.1 | 45.8 | (14.3) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 145 | 264 | 467 | 387 | 366 | 348 | 330 | 314 | 298 |
| margin % | 6.5 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 |
| less depreciation | (35) | (38) | (43) | (47) | (46) | (43) | (41) | (39) | (37) |
| EBIT | 110 | 225 | 424 | 340 | 320 | 304 | 289 | 275 | 261 |
| less tax on EBIT | (112) | (105) | (100) | (95) | (90) | (86) | |||
| NOPAT | 228 | 215 | 204 | 194 | 184 | 175 | |||
| add depreciation | 35 | 38 | 43 | 47 | 46 | 43 | 41 | 39 | 37 |
| less capex | (53) | (82) | (533) | (167) | (158) | (126) | (96) | (69) | (45) |
| less working-capital build | — | 76 | 72 | 68 | 65 | 62 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (156) | 14 | (579) | — | 178 | 194 | 207 | 219 | 229 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 169 | 166 | 160 | 152 | 143 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 873, dividends at 15.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 340 | 320 | 304 | 289 | 275 | 261 |
| Interest at 13.6% on debt | (119) | (119) | (119) | (119) | (119) | |
| Profit before tax | 201 | 185 | 170 | 156 | 142 | |
| Profit after tax | 195 | 135 | 124 | 114 | 105 | 95 |
| Dividends | (30) | (21) | (19) | (17) | (16) | (15) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 90 | 168 | 263 | 373 | 496 | 631 |
| Working capital | 1,512 | 1,437 | 1,365 | 1,297 | 1,232 | 1,171 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,452 | 3,564 | 3,646 | 3,701 | 3,731 | 3,738 |
| Debt | 873 | 873 | 873 | 873 | 873 | 873 |
| Equity | 2,412 | 2,526 | 2,632 | 2,729 | 2,817 | 2,898 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 256 | 240 | 224 | 209 | 194 | |
| Investing (capex) | (158) | (126) | (96) | (69) | (45) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (21) | (19) | (17) | (16) | (15) | |
| Net change in cash | 78 | 95 | 110 | 123 | 135 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 98 | 114 | 128 | 139 | 149 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 8.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹59 | (50.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.