Models
T G V SRAAC LTD.TGVSLChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹100per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹100implied FY26 P/E 8.2× · EV/EBITDA 4.0×
Against CMP ₹105.99−5.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3197%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹64₹174
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 47 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,342 |
| Enterprise value | 1,389 |
| less net debt | (313) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,076 |
| ÷ 10.71 crore shares | ₹100 |
97% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 105 | 118 | 133 | 151 | 174 |
| 10.50% | 92 | 103 | 115 | 130 | 148 |
| 11.00% | 81 | 90 | 100 | 112 | 127 |
| 11.50% | 72 | 79 | 88 | 98 | 110 |
| 12.00% | 64 | 70 | 77 | 86 | 96 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹105.99; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 40 · 98 · 161 |
| Draws below the CMP | 56% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.94 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.30 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,326 | 1,546 | 1,749 | 1,950 | 2,175 | 2,425 | 2,703 | 3,014 | 3,361 |
| growth % | 52.5 | (33.5) | 13.1 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| EBITDA | 537 | 173 | 225 | 350 | 389 | 434 | 484 | 540 | 602 |
| margin % | 23.1 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 17.9 | 17.9 | 17.9 | 17.9 | 17.9 | 17.9 |
| less depreciation | (74) | (84) | (88) | (164) | (183) | (204) | (227) | (253) | (282) |
| EBIT | 463 | 89 | 137 | 186 | 207 | 230 | 257 | 286 | 319 |
| less tax on EBIT | (48) | (54) | (60) | (67) | (74) | (83) | |||
| NOPAT | 137 | 153 | 170 | 190 | 212 | 236 | |||
| add depreciation | 74 | 84 | 88 | 164 | 183 | 204 | 227 | 253 | 282 |
| less capex | (171) | (246) | (142) | (330) | (367) | (368) | (365) | (355) | (339) |
| less working-capital build | — | (33) | (37) | (41) | (45) | (51) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 258 | (82) | 53 | — | (65) | (31) | 12 | 64 | 129 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (61) | (26) | 9 | 45 | 81 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 326, dividends at 8.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 186 | 207 | 230 | 257 | 286 | 319 |
| Interest at 7.2% on debt | (23) | (23) | (23) | (23) | (23) | |
| Profit before tax | 183 | 207 | 233 | 263 | 296 | |
| Profit after tax | 132 | 135 | 153 | 173 | 195 | 219 |
| Dividends | (11) | (11) | (12) | (14) | (16) | (18) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 13 | (80) | (141) | (160) | (129) | (35) |
| Working capital | 285 | 318 | 354 | 395 | 440 | 491 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,826 | 2,011 | 2,176 | 2,313 | 2,415 | 2,472 |
| Debt | 326 | 326 | 326 | 326 | 326 | 326 |
| Equity | 1,297 | 1,422 | 1,563 | 1,721 | 1,900 | 2,101 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 285 | 320 | 359 | 402 | 451 | |
| Investing (capex) | (367) | (368) | (365) | (355) | (339) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (11) | (12) | (14) | (16) | (18) | |
| Net change in cash | (93) | (61) | (20) | 31 | 94 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (82) | (48) | (6) | 47 | 112 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11.5% | 17.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹100 | (5.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.