Models
THE GE SHPG.LTDGESHIPTransport Services
₹2,176per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,176implied FY26 P/E 8.3× · EV/EBITDA 8.8×
Against CMP ₹1,414.00+53.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(9.6)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,710₹3,107
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹971₹1,798
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 5,272 |
| PV of terminal value | 22,510 |
| Enterprise value | 27,782 |
| less net debt | 3,288 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 31,070 |
| ÷ 14.28 crore shares | ₹2,176 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,243 | 2,400 | 2,589 | 2,819 | 3,107 |
| 10.50% | 2,079 | 2,209 | 2,364 | 2,549 | 2,775 |
| 11.00% | 1,938 | 2,048 | 2,176 | 2,328 | 2,510 |
| 11.50% | 1,816 | 1,910 | 2,018 | 2,144 | 2,293 |
| 12.00% | 1,710 | 1,791 | 1,883 | 1,989 | 2,112 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,414.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,786 · 2,161 · 2,610 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.78 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.58 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.06 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,690 | 5,255 | 5,323 | 5,409 | 5,490 | 5,573 | 5,656 | 5,741 | 5,827 |
| growth % | 62.2 | (7.6) | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| EBITDA | 3,128 | 3,022 | 2,677 | 3,148 | 3,195 | 3,243 | 3,292 | 3,341 | 3,391 |
| margin % | 55.0 | 57.5 | 50.3 | 58.2 | 58.2 | 58.2 | 58.2 | 58.2 | 58.2 |
| less depreciation | (712) | (726) | (813) | (889) | (900) | (914) | (928) | (942) | (956) |
| EBIT | 2,416 | 2,296 | 1,864 | 2,259 | 2,295 | 2,329 | 2,364 | 2,400 | 2,436 |
| less tax on EBIT | (63) | (64) | (65) | (66) | (67) | (68) | |||
| NOPAT | 2,196 | 2,231 | 2,264 | 2,298 | 2,333 | 2,368 | |||
| add depreciation | 712 | 726 | 813 | 889 | 900 | 914 | 928 | 942 | 956 |
| less capex | (465) | (845) | (1,175) | (2,372) | (2,410) | (2,109) | (1,798) | (1,477) | (1,147) |
| less working-capital build | — | (8) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 2,509 | 1,963 | 1,472 | — | 712 | 1,061 | 1,419 | 1,788 | 2,167 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 676 | 907 | 1,093 | 1,241 | 1,355 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,049, dividends at 14% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,259 | 2,295 | 2,329 | 2,364 | 2,400 | 2,436 |
| Interest at 8.5% on debt | (89) | (89) | (89) | (89) | (89) | |
| Profit before tax | 2,206 | 2,240 | 2,275 | 2,311 | 2,347 | |
| Profit after tax | 2,943 | 2,144 | 2,177 | 2,211 | 2,246 | 2,281 |
| Dividends | (411) | (300) | (305) | (310) | (314) | (319) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 4,337 | 4,662 | 5,331 | 6,354 | 7,741 | 9,502 |
| Working capital | 565 | 573 | 582 | 590 | 599 | 608 |
| Net block and other assets | 14,559 | 16,068 | 17,263 | 18,134 | 18,670 | 18,861 |
| Debt | 1,049 | 1,049 | 1,049 | 1,049 | 1,049 | 1,049 |
| Equity | 16,962 | 18,806 | 20,679 | 22,581 | 24,512 | 26,474 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 3,036 | 3,083 | 3,130 | 3,179 | 3,228 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2,410) | (2,109) | (1,798) | (1,477) | (1,147) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (300) | (305) | (310) | (314) | (319) | |
| Net change in cash | 326 | 669 | 1,023 | 1,387 | 1,761 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 626 | 974 | 1,332 | 1,701 | 2,081 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 1.5% | 58.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,176 | 53.9% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.