Models
THE HI-TECH GEARS LIMITEDHITECHGEAR
₹44per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹44implied FY26 P/E 4.2× · EV/EBITDA 2.6×
Against CMP ₹570.00−92.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3144%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹25₹80
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹521₹897
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 146 |
| PV of terminal value | 113 |
| Enterprise value | 259 |
| less net debt | (176) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 83 |
| ÷ 1.88 crore shares | ₹44 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 47 | 53 | 61 | 69 | 80 |
| 10.50% | 41 | 46 | 52 | 59 | 67 |
| 11.00% | 35 | 39 | 44 | 50 | 57 |
| 11.50% | 30 | 33 | 38 | 42 | 48 |
| 12.00% | 25 | 29 | 32 | 36 | 41 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹570.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (1) · 44 · 90 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.97 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.22 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,169 | 1,107 | 927 | 908 | 890 | 872 | 855 | 838 | 821 |
| growth % | 20.5 | (5.3) | (16.3) | (2.0) | (2.0) | (2.0) | (2.0) | (2.0) | (2.0) |
| EBITDA | 141 | 227 | 136 | 101 | 99 | 97 | 95 | 93 | 91 |
| margin % | 12.1 | 20.5 | 14.7 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 |
| less depreciation | (82) | (61) | (63) | (67) | (66) | (65) | (63) | (62) | (61) |
| EBIT | 59 | 166 | 72 | 34 | 33 | 32 | 32 | 31 | 30 |
| less tax on EBIT | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | (11) | (11) | |||
| NOPAT | 21 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 19 | |||
| add depreciation | 82 | 61 | 63 | 67 | 66 | 65 | 63 | 62 | 61 |
| less capex | (30) | (34) | (24) | (32) | (31) | (42) | (53) | (63) | (73) |
| less working-capital build | — | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 25 | 83 | 144 | — | 60 | 47 | 34 | 22 | 11 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 57 | 40 | 26 | 16 | 7 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 183, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 34 | 33 | 32 | 32 | 31 | 30 |
| Interest at 7.7% on debt | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) | |
| Profit before tax | 19 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| Dividends | (9) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 6 | 57 | 95 | 121 | 134 | 136 |
| Working capital | 213 | 209 | 204 | 200 | 196 | 192 |
| Net block and other assets | 620 | 585 | 563 | 553 | 554 | 566 |
| Debt | 183 | 183 | 183 | 183 | 183 | 183 |
| Equity | 523 | 535 | 546 | 557 | 568 | 578 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 82 | 80 | 78 | 77 | 75 | |
| Investing (capex) | (31) | (42) | (53) | (63) | (73) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 51 | 38 | 26 | 14 | 2 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 51 | 38 | 26 | 14 | 2 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -2% | 11.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹44 | (92.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.