Models
THE INDIAN HOTELS CO. LTDINDHOTELLeisure Services
₹397per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹397implied FY26 P/E 26.3× · EV/EBITDA 16.2×
Against CMP ₹718.50−44.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies32.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹304₹583
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹565₹793
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 11,346 |
| PV of terminal value | 44,773 |
| Enterprise value | 56,119 |
| less net debt | 355 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 56,474 |
| ÷ 142.34 crore shares | ₹397 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 410 | 441 | 479 | 525 | 583 |
| 10.50% | 377 | 403 | 434 | 471 | 516 |
| 11.00% | 349 | 371 | 397 | 427 | 463 |
| 11.50% | 325 | 344 | 365 | 390 | 420 |
| 12.00% | 304 | 320 | 338 | 359 | 384 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹718.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 311 · 395 · 499 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.64 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.51 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.51 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,810 | 6,769 | 8,335 | 9,689 | 11,288 | 13,150 | 15,320 | 17,848 | 20,793 |
| growth % | 90.1 | 16.5 | 23.1 | 16.3 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,808 | 2,157 | 3,074 | 3,470 | 4,041 | 4,708 | 5,485 | 6,390 | 7,444 |
| margin % | 31.1 | 31.9 | 36.9 | 35.8 | 35.8 | 35.8 | 35.8 | 35.8 | 35.8 |
| less depreciation | (416) | (454) | (518) | (605) | (700) | (815) | (950) | (1,107) | (1,289) |
| EBIT | 1,392 | 1,703 | 2,556 | 2,865 | 3,341 | 3,893 | 4,535 | 5,283 | 6,155 |
| less tax on EBIT | (716) | (835) | (973) | (1,134) | (1,321) | (1,539) | |||
| NOPAT | 2,149 | 2,506 | 2,919 | 3,401 | 3,962 | 4,616 | |||
| add depreciation | 416 | 454 | 518 | 605 | 700 | 815 | 950 | 1,107 | 1,289 |
| less capex | (471) | (637) | (1,074) | (1,037) | (1,208) | (1,300) | (1,390) | (1,473) | (1,547) |
| less working-capital build | — | (26) | (30) | (35) | (40) | (47) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,148 | 1,298 | 1,120 | — | 1,972 | 2,405 | 2,927 | 3,555 | 4,311 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,872 | 2,057 | 2,255 | 2,467 | 2,695 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 51, dividends at 16.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,865 | 3,341 | 3,893 | 4,535 | 5,283 | 6,155 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 3,337 | 3,888 | 4,531 | 5,279 | 6,151 | |
| Profit after tax | 2,084 | 2,503 | 2,916 | 3,398 | 3,959 | 4,613 |
| Dividends | (342) | (410) | (478) | (557) | (649) | (757) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 406 | 1,965 | 3,889 | 6,255 | 9,158 | 12,709 |
| Working capital | 157 | 182 | 212 | 247 | 287 | 334 |
| Net block and other assets | 19,734 | 20,242 | 20,727 | 21,166 | 21,533 | 21,791 |
| Debt | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 |
| Equity | 14,939 | 17,032 | 19,470 | 22,310 | 25,620 | 29,477 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 3,177 | 3,702 | 4,313 | 5,025 | 5,855 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,208) | (1,300) | (1,390) | (1,473) | (1,547) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (410) | (478) | (557) | (649) | (757) | |
| Net change in cash | 1,559 | 1,924 | 2,366 | 2,903 | 3,552 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,969 | 2,402 | 2,924 | 3,552 | 4,308 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 16.5% | 35.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹397 | (44.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.