Models
THE PHOENIX MILLS LTDPHOENIXLTDRealty
₹971per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹971implied FY26 P/E 27.1× · EV/EBITDA 15.3×
Against CMP ₹1,890.00−48.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies33.4%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3184%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹696₹1,522
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,466₹2,170
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 6,439 |
| PV of terminal value | 33,404 |
| Enterprise value | 39,842 |
| less net debt | (5,114) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 34,728 |
| ÷ 35.76 crore shares | ₹971 |
84% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,010 | 1,103 | 1,215 | 1,351 | 1,522 |
| 10.50% | 913 | 990 | 1,082 | 1,191 | 1,325 |
| 11.00% | 830 | 895 | 971 | 1,061 | 1,169 |
| 11.50% | 758 | 814 | 878 | 952 | 1,040 |
| 12.00% | 696 | 743 | 798 | 860 | 934 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,890.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 731 · 964 · 1,257 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.58 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.55 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.54 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,638 | 3,978 | 3,814 | 4,423 | 5,130 | 5,951 | 6,904 | 8,008 | 9,289 |
| growth % | 77.8 | 50.8 | (4.1) | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| EBITDA | 2,124 | 2,177 | 2,174 | 2,608 | 3,027 | 3,511 | 4,073 | 4,725 | 5,481 |
| margin % | 80.5 | 54.7 | 57.0 | 59.0 | 59.0 | 59.0 | 59.0 | 59.0 | 59.0 |
| less depreciation | (228) | (270) | (327) | (360) | (416) | (482) | (559) | (649) | (752) |
| EBIT | 1,896 | 1,907 | 1,847 | 2,248 | 2,611 | 3,029 | 3,514 | 4,076 | 4,728 |
| less tax on EBIT | (526) | (611) | (709) | (822) | (954) | (1,106) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,722 | 2,000 | 2,320 | 2,692 | 3,122 | 3,622 | |||
| add depreciation | 228 | 270 | 327 | 360 | 416 | 482 | 559 | 649 | 752 |
| less capex | (1,826) | (1,674) | (2,617) | (1,397) | (1,621) | (1,555) | (1,426) | (1,216) | (903) |
| less working-capital build | — | (141) | (163) | (189) | (220) | (255) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (470) | 488 | (534) | — | 654 | 1,084 | 1,635 | 2,335 | 3,216 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 621 | 927 | 1,260 | 1,620 | 2,011 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 5,296, dividends at 7.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,248 | 2,611 | 3,029 | 3,514 | 4,076 | 4,728 |
| Interest at 7.8% on debt | (413) | (413) | (413) | (413) | (413) | |
| Profit before tax | 2,198 | 2,616 | 3,101 | 3,663 | 4,315 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,224 | 1,684 | 2,004 | 2,375 | 2,806 | 3,305 |
| Dividends | (89) | (123) | (146) | (173) | (205) | (241) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 181 | 396 | 1,017 | 2,163 | 3,976 | 6,635 |
| Working capital | 881 | 1,022 | 1,185 | 1,375 | 1,594 | 1,849 |
| Net block and other assets | 21,790 | 22,996 | 24,069 | 24,936 | 25,504 | 25,654 |
| Debt | 5,296 | 5,296 | 5,296 | 5,296 | 5,296 | 5,296 |
| Equity | 14,305 | 15,866 | 17,724 | 19,925 | 22,526 | 25,591 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,959 | 2,323 | 2,745 | 3,235 | 3,803 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,621) | (1,555) | (1,426) | (1,216) | (903) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (123) | (146) | (173) | (205) | (241) | |
| Net change in cash | 215 | 621 | 1,145 | 1,813 | 2,659 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 337 | 768 | 1,319 | 2,018 | 2,900 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 16% | 59% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹971 | (48.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.