Models
THE RAMCO CEMENTS LIMITEDRAMCOCEMCement & Cement Products
₹465per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹465implied FY26 P/E 17.0× · EV/EBITDA 7.4×
Against CMP ₹868.45−46.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies20.7%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹325₹745
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹838₹1,215
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 3,453 |
| PV of terminal value | 11,201 |
| Enterprise value | 14,655 |
| less net debt | (3,664) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 10,991 |
| ÷ 23.63 crore shares | ₹465 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 486 | 533 | 590 | 659 | 745 |
| 10.50% | 436 | 475 | 522 | 577 | 645 |
| 11.00% | 394 | 427 | 465 | 511 | 565 |
| 11.50% | 357 | 385 | 417 | 455 | 500 |
| 12.00% | 325 | 349 | 376 | 408 | 445 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹868.45; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 323 · 460 · 620 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.20 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8,157 | 9,376 | 8,518 | 9,029 | 9,570 | 10,145 | 10,753 | 11,399 | 12,083 |
| growth % | 35.9 | 14.9 | (9.2) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,186 | 1,565 | 1,432 | 1,989 | 2,106 | 2,232 | 2,366 | 2,508 | 2,658 |
| margin % | 14.5 | 16.7 | 16.8 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 |
| less depreciation | (506) | (646) | (695) | (740) | (785) | (832) | (882) | (935) | (991) |
| EBIT | 680 | 918 | 737 | 1,249 | 1,321 | 1,400 | 1,484 | 1,573 | 1,667 |
| less tax on EBIT | (257) | (272) | (288) | (306) | (324) | (343) | |||
| NOPAT | 992 | 1,049 | 1,112 | 1,178 | 1,249 | 1,324 | |||
| add depreciation | 506 | 646 | 695 | 740 | 785 | 832 | 882 | 935 | 991 |
| less capex | (1,766) | (1,923) | (1,024) | (997) | (1,053) | (1,086) | (1,121) | (1,155) | (1,189) |
| less working-capital build | — | (37) | (40) | (42) | (45) | (47) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (354) | (17) | 375 | — | 743 | 817 | 898 | 984 | 1,079 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 706 | 699 | 691 | 683 | 674 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 3,852, dividends at 6.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,249 | 1,321 | 1,400 | 1,484 | 1,573 | 1,667 |
| Interest at 9.9% on debt | (381) | (381) | (381) | (381) | (381) | |
| Profit before tax | 939 | 1,019 | 1,103 | 1,192 | 1,286 | |
| Profit after tax | 699 | 746 | 809 | 875 | 946 | 1,021 |
| Dividends | (47) | (51) | (55) | (60) | (64) | (69) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 188 | 578 | 1,038 | 1,573 | 2,190 | 2,897 |
| Working capital | 621 | 658 | 698 | 740 | 784 | 832 |
| Net block and other assets | 15,826 | 16,094 | 16,349 | 16,588 | 16,808 | 17,006 |
| Debt | 3,852 | 3,852 | 3,852 | 3,852 | 3,852 | 3,852 |
| Equity | 8,094 | 8,789 | 9,543 | 10,359 | 11,241 | 12,192 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,493 | 1,601 | 1,715 | 1,836 | 1,965 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,053) | (1,086) | (1,121) | (1,155) | (1,189) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (51) | (55) | (60) | (64) | (69) | |
| Net change in cash | 390 | 460 | 535 | 617 | 706 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 441 | 515 | 595 | 682 | 776 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 6% | 22% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹465 | (46.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.