Models
THE UGAR SUGAR WORKS LTDUGARSUGARAgricultural Food & other Products
₹113per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹113implied FY23 P/E 18.5× · EV/EBITDA 7.7×
Against CMP ₹54.20+108.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY2889%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹75₹188
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹34₹62
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY24–FY28 free cash flow | 179 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,432 |
| Enterprise value | 1,610 |
| less net debt | (341) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,269 |
| ÷ 11.25 crore shares | ₹113 |
89% of the value sits after FY28. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 118 | 131 | 146 | 164 | 188 |
| 10.50% | 105 | 115 | 128 | 143 | 161 |
| 11.00% | 94 | 102 | 113 | 125 | 140 |
| 11.50% | 84 | 91 | 100 | 110 | 122 |
| 12.00% | 75 | 82 | 89 | 98 | 108 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹54.20; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 28 · 110 · 177 |
| Draws below the CMP | 18% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.45 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.25 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 966 | 1,118 | 1,302 | 1,940 | 2,522 | 3,279 | 4,263 | 5,541 | 7,204 |
| growth % | — | 15.7 | 16.4 | 49.1 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 23 | 68 | 99 | 208 | 270 | 351 | 456 | 593 | 771 |
| margin % | 2.4 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.7 |
| less depreciation | (14) | (12) | (11) | (18) | (23) | (30) | (38) | (50) | (65) |
| EBIT | 9 | 55 | 88 | 190 | 247 | 321 | 418 | 543 | 706 |
| less tax on EBIT | (58) | (76) | (98) | (128) | (166) | (216) | |||
| NOPAT | 132 | 172 | 223 | 290 | 377 | 490 | |||
| add depreciation | 14 | 12 | 11 | 18 | 23 | 30 | 38 | 50 | 65 |
| less capex | — | (6) | (92) | (59) | (78) | (85) | (89) | (88) | (78) |
| less working-capital build | — | (119) | (154) | (201) | (261) | (339) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | — | (84) | (39) | — | (3) | 13 | 39 | 78 | 138 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (3) | 11 | 30 | 54 | 86 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 347, dividends at 2.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 190 | 247 | 321 | 418 | 543 | 706 |
| Interest at 9.8% on debt | (34) | (34) | (34) | (34) | (34) | |
| Profit before tax | 213 | 287 | 384 | 509 | 672 | |
| Profit after tax | 103 | 148 | 199 | 266 | 353 | 466 |
| Dividends | (3) | (4) | (5) | (7) | (10) | (13) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 6 | (25) | (40) | (33) | 12 | 114 |
| Working capital | 397 | 515 | 670 | 870 | 1,131 | 1,470 |
| Net block and other assets | 514 | 570 | 625 | 676 | 714 | 727 |
| Debt | 347 | 347 | 347 | 347 | 347 | 347 |
| Equity | 221 | 365 | 559 | 818 | 1,162 | 1,615 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 52 | 75 | 104 | 142 | 192 | |
| Investing (capex) | (78) | (85) | (89) | (88) | (78) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (4) | (5) | (7) | (10) | (13) | |
| Net change in cash | (30) | (16) | 8 | 45 | 102 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (26) | (11) | 15 | 54 | 114 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY23 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 10.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹113 | 108.1% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.