Models
THERMAX LTDTHERMAXElectrical Equipment
₹499per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹499implied FY26 P/E 9.5× · EV/EBITDA 6.9×
Against CMP ₹3,692.50−86.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3190%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹331₹834
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,743₹5,278
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 774 |
| PV of terminal value | 6,780 |
| Enterprise value | 7,554 |
| less net debt | (1,614) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,940 |
| ÷ 11.92 crore shares | ₹499 |
90% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 522 | 578 | 647 | 730 | 834 |
| 10.50% | 463 | 510 | 566 | 633 | 714 |
| 11.00% | 413 | 452 | 499 | 553 | 619 |
| 11.50% | 369 | 403 | 442 | 487 | 541 |
| 12.00% | 331 | 360 | 393 | 432 | 476 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3,692.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 368 · 493 · 647 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.74 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.62 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.07 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8,090 | 9,323 | 10,389 | 10,694 | 11,015 | 11,345 | 11,686 | 12,036 | 12,397 |
| growth % | 32.0 | 15.2 | 11.4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| EBITDA | 598 | 873 | 908 | 1,087 | 1,124 | 1,157 | 1,192 | 1,228 | 1,265 |
| margin % | 7.4 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| less depreciation | (117) | (148) | (159) | (208) | (209) | (216) | (222) | (229) | (236) |
| EBIT | 481 | 725 | 749 | 880 | 914 | 942 | 970 | 999 | 1,029 |
| less tax on EBIT | (251) | (261) | (268) | (276) | (285) | (293) | |||
| NOPAT | 629 | 654 | 673 | 693 | 714 | 736 | |||
| add depreciation | 117 | 148 | 159 | 208 | 209 | 216 | 222 | 229 | 236 |
| less capex | (650) | (844) | (903) | (952) | (980) | (822) | (653) | (474) | (283) |
| less working-capital build | — | (32) | (33) | (34) | (35) | (36) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (190) | (597) | 140 | — | (149) | 34 | 229 | 435 | 653 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (142) | 29 | 176 | 302 | 408 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,288, dividends at 21.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 880 | 914 | 942 | 970 | 999 | 1,029 |
| Interest at 7% on debt | (160) | (160) | (160) | (160) | (160) | |
| Profit before tax | 754 | 782 | 810 | 839 | 869 | |
| Profit after tax | 721 | 539 | 559 | 579 | 600 | 621 |
| Dividends | (158) | (118) | (122) | (127) | (131) | (136) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 674 | 293 | 90 | 77 | 266 | 668 |
| Working capital | 1,058 | 1,089 | 1,122 | 1,156 | 1,191 | 1,226 |
| Net block and other assets | 11,550 | 12,321 | 12,927 | 13,359 | 13,604 | 13,651 |
| Debt | 2,288 | 2,288 | 2,288 | 2,288 | 2,288 | 2,288 |
| Equity | 5,579 | 6,000 | 6,437 | 6,889 | 7,357 | 7,842 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 717 | 742 | 767 | 794 | 821 | |
| Investing (capex) | (980) | (822) | (653) | (474) | (283) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (118) | (122) | (127) | (131) | (136) | |
| Net change in cash | (382) | (203) | (13) | 189 | 402 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (264) | (80) | 114 | 320 | 538 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3% | 10.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹499 | (86.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.