Models
THOMAS COOK (INDIA) LTDTHOMASCOOKLeisure Services
₹66per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹66implied FY26 P/E 14.1× · EV/EBITDA 5.8×
Against CMP ₹107.10−38.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies17.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3169%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹56₹88
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹86₹180
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 743 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,691 |
| Enterprise value | 2,434 |
| less net debt | 683 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,117 |
| ÷ 47.04 crore shares | ₹66 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 68 | 71 | 76 | 81 | 88 |
| 10.50% | 64 | 67 | 71 | 75 | 80 |
| 11.00% | 61 | 63 | 66 | 70 | 74 |
| 11.50% | 58 | 60 | 63 | 65 | 69 |
| 12.00% | 56 | 57 | 59 | 62 | 65 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹107.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 55 · 66 · 78 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.84 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.12 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,048 | 7,299 | 8,140 | 8,398 | 8,650 | 8,910 | 9,177 | 9,452 | 9,736 |
| growth % | 167.3 | 44.6 | 11.5 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| EBITDA | 176 | 435 | 470 | 422 | 433 | 445 | 459 | 473 | 487 |
| margin % | 3.5 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| less depreciation | (124) | (128) | (142) | (160) | (164) | (169) | (174) | (180) | (185) |
| EBIT | 52 | 308 | 328 | 262 | 268 | 276 | 284 | 293 | 302 |
| less tax on EBIT | (89) | (91) | (93) | (96) | (99) | (102) | |||
| NOPAT | 173 | 178 | 183 | 188 | 194 | 200 | |||
| add depreciation | 124 | 128 | 142 | 160 | 164 | 169 | 174 | 180 | 185 |
| less capex | (68) | (104) | (117) | (126) | (130) | (151) | (173) | (197) | (222) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 529 | 725 | 600 | — | 212 | 201 | 189 | 176 | 163 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 201 | 172 | 146 | 122 | 102 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 277, dividends at 12.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 262 | 268 | 276 | 284 | 293 | 302 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (22) | (22) | (22) | (22) | (22) | |
| Profit before tax | 246 | 254 | 262 | 271 | 280 | |
| Profit after tax | 219 | 163 | 168 | 174 | 179 | 185 |
| Dividends | (28) | (21) | (22) | (22) | (23) | (24) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 960 | 1,136 | 1,301 | 1,454 | 1,593 | 1,717 |
| Working capital | (2,103) | (2,103) | (2,103) | (2,103) | (2,103) | (2,103) |
| Net block and other assets | 9,042 | 9,007 | 8,989 | 8,988 | 9,005 | 9,042 |
| Debt | 277 | 277 | 277 | 277 | 277 | 277 |
| Equity | 2,524 | 2,666 | 2,812 | 2,964 | 3,120 | 3,281 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 327 | 337 | 348 | 359 | 370 | |
| Investing (capex) | (130) | (151) | (173) | (197) | (222) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (21) | (22) | (22) | (23) | (24) | |
| Net change in cash | 177 | 165 | 152 | 139 | 124 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 197 | 186 | 175 | 162 | 148 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3% | 5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹66 | (38.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.