Models
THREE M PAPER BOARDS LIMITEDBSE 544214Paper, Forest & Jute Products
₹1per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1implied FY26 P/E 0.2× · EV/EBITDA 4.4×
Against CMP ₹23.04−94.5%close of 2026-09-09
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3196%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(10)₹24
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹18₹43
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 3 |
| PV of terminal value | 74 |
| Enterprise value | 77 |
| less net debt | (75) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2 |
| ÷ 1.92 crore shares | ₹1 |
96% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 3 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 24 |
| 10.50% | (1) | 2 | 6 | 10 | 16 |
| 11.00% | (5) | (2) | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 11.50% | (7) | (5) | (3) | 1 | 4 |
| 12.00% | (10) | (8) | (6) | (3) | (0) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹23.04; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (27) · 1 · 27 |
| Draws below the CMP | 86% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.91 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.33 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.20 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 266 | 297 | 333 | 373 | 418 | 468 | 524 |
| growth % | — | 11.9 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| EBITDA | — | 18 | 20 | 22 | 25 | 28 | 31 |
| margin % | — | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| less depreciation | — | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (13) | (14) |
| EBIT | — | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 17 |
| less tax on EBIT | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| NOPAT | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 19 | |
| add depreciation | — | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 14 |
| less capex | (29) | (17) | (19) | (19) | (18) | (18) | (17) |
| less working-capital build | — | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (9) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (19) | — | (3) | (2) | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | (3) | (1) | 1 | 3 | 4 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 75, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 17 |
| Interest at 8.8% on debt | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | |
| Profit before tax | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | |
| Profit after tax | 7 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | (11) | (19) | (26) | (30) | (30) |
| Working capital | 49 | 55 | 61 | 68 | 77 | 86 |
| Net block and other assets | 223 | 232 | 241 | 248 | 253 | 256 |
| Debt | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 75 |
| Equity | 111 | 116 | 122 | 130 | 140 | 152 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 17 | |
| Investing (capex) | (19) | (19) | (18) | (18) | (17) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (11) | (9) | (7) | (4) | (0) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (11) | (9) | (7) | (4) | (0) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12% | 6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1 | (94.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.