Models
THYROCARE TECH LTDTHYROCAREHealthcare Services
₹281per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹281implied FY26 P/E 16.4× · EV/EBITDA 17.3×
Against CMP ₹552.65−49.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies41.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹218₹408
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹343₹662
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,031 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,405 |
| Enterprise value | 4,436 |
| less net debt | 38 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,474 |
| ÷ 15.92 crore shares | ₹281 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 290 | 312 | 337 | 368 | 408 |
| 10.50% | 268 | 286 | 307 | 332 | 362 |
| 11.00% | 249 | 264 | 281 | 302 | 326 |
| 11.50% | 232 | 245 | 260 | 277 | 297 |
| 12.00% | 218 | 229 | 241 | 255 | 272 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹552.65; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 217 · 279 · 358 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.54 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.46 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 527 | 572 | 687 | 829 | 999 | 1,204 | 1,451 | 1,748 | 2,106 |
| growth % | (10.6) | 8.6 | 20.2 | 20.6 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 |
| EBITDA | 120 | 137 | 190 | 256 | 309 | 372 | 448 | 540 | 651 |
| margin % | 22.8 | 24.0 | 27.7 | 30.9 | 30.9 | 30.9 | 30.9 | 30.9 | 30.9 |
| less depreciation | (39) | (47) | (55) | (59) | (71) | (85) | (103) | (124) | (150) |
| EBIT | 81 | 90 | 135 | 197 | 238 | 287 | 345 | 416 | 501 |
| less tax on EBIT | (47) | (56) | (68) | (82) | (99) | (119) | |||
| NOPAT | 151 | 181 | 219 | 263 | 317 | 382 | |||
| add depreciation | 39 | 47 | 55 | 59 | 71 | 85 | 103 | 124 | 150 |
| less capex | (44) | (62) | (45) | (21) | (25) | (48) | (80) | (123) | (179) |
| less working-capital build | — | (12) | (14) | (17) | (21) | (25) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 86 | 106 | 146 | — | 216 | 242 | 269 | 298 | 328 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 205 | 207 | 208 | 207 | 205 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 91% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 197 | 238 | 287 | 345 | 416 | 501 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 238 | 287 | 345 | 416 | 501 | |
| Profit after tax | 163 | 181 | 219 | 263 | 317 | 382 |
| Dividends | (148) | (165) | (199) | (240) | (289) | (348) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 38 | 89 | 132 | 161 | 171 | 151 |
| Working capital | 57 | 69 | 83 | 100 | 120 | 145 |
| Net block and other assets | 652 | 606 | 569 | 546 | 544 | 574 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 586 | 602 | 622 | 646 | 674 | 709 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 241 | 290 | 349 | 421 | 507 | |
| Investing (capex) | (25) | (48) | (80) | (123) | (179) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (165) | (199) | (240) | (289) | (348) | |
| Net change in cash | 51 | 43 | 30 | 10 | (20) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 216 | 242 | 269 | 298 | 328 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 20.5% | 30.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹281 | (49.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.