₹102per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹102implied FY26 P/E 9.9× · EV/EBITDA 5.7×
Against CMP ₹181.00−43.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3187%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹75₹155
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹154₹249
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 690 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,439 |
| Enterprise value | 5,129 |
| less net debt | (102) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,027 |
| ÷ 49.36 crore shares | ₹102 |
87% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 106 | 115 | 125 | 138 | 155 |
| 10.50% | 96 | 104 | 112 | 123 | 136 |
| 11.00% | 88 | 95 | 102 | 110 | 121 |
| 11.50% | 81 | 87 | 93 | 100 | 109 |
| 12.00% | 75 | 80 | 85 | 91 | 98 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹181.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 63 · 100 · 139 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.36 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.35 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,289 | 4,993 | 5,457 | 6,105 | 6,838 | 7,658 | 8,577 | 9,607 | 10,759 |
| growth % | 17.5 | 16.4 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| EBITDA | 577 | 691 | 785 | 892 | 998 | 1,118 | 1,252 | 1,403 | 1,571 |
| margin % | 13.5 | 13.8 | 14.4 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 |
| less depreciation | (171) | (173) | (170) | (183) | (205) | (230) | (257) | (288) | (323) |
| EBIT | 406 | 518 | 615 | 709 | 793 | 888 | 995 | 1,114 | 1,248 |
| less tax on EBIT | (179) | (201) | (225) | (252) | (282) | (316) | |||
| NOPAT | 529 | 593 | 664 | 743 | 832 | 932 | |||
| add depreciation | 171 | 173 | 170 | 183 | 205 | 230 | 257 | 288 | 323 |
| less capex | (225) | (181) | (196) | (453) | (506) | (494) | (472) | (437) | (387) |
| less working-capital build | — | (280) | (313) | (351) | (393) | (440) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 146 | 225 | 235 | — | 12 | 86 | 178 | 290 | 427 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 11 | 73 | 137 | 202 | 267 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 639, dividends at 12.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 709 | 793 | 888 | 995 | 1,114 | 1,248 |
| Interest at 12.4% on debt | (79) | (79) | (79) | (79) | (79) | |
| Profit before tax | 714 | 809 | 916 | 1,035 | 1,169 | |
| Profit after tax | 469 | 533 | 604 | 684 | 773 | 873 |
| Dividends | (59) | (67) | (76) | (86) | (97) | (110) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 537 | 423 | 373 | 406 | 539 | 797 |
| Working capital | 2,335 | 2,615 | 2,928 | 3,279 | 3,673 | 4,113 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,766 | 3,067 | 3,331 | 3,546 | 3,695 | 3,759 |
| Debt | 639 | 639 | 639 | 639 | 639 | 639 |
| Equity | 4,166 | 4,632 | 5,161 | 5,758 | 6,434 | 7,197 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 459 | 521 | 590 | 668 | 756 | |
| Investing (capex) | (506) | (494) | (472) | (437) | (387) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (67) | (76) | (86) | (97) | (110) | |
| Net change in cash | (115) | (49) | 32 | 134 | 258 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (47) | 27 | 119 | 231 | 368 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12% | 14.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹102 | (43.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.