Models
TIMEX GROUP INDIA LTD.TIMEXConsumer Durables
₹218per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹218implied FY26 P/E 29.9× · EV/EBITDA 20.2×
Against CMP ₹630.00−65.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹166₹323
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹312₹688
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 411 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,789 |
| Enterprise value | 2,200 |
| less net debt | 4 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,204 |
| ÷ 10.10 crore shares | ₹218 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 226 | 243 | 265 | 290 | 323 |
| 10.50% | 207 | 222 | 239 | 260 | 286 |
| 11.00% | 191 | 204 | 218 | 235 | 256 |
| 11.50% | 178 | 188 | 200 | 215 | 231 |
| 12.00% | 166 | 175 | 185 | 197 | 211 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹630.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 167 · 215 · 278 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.51 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 383 | 419 | 538 | 799 | 1,038 | 1,350 | 1,755 | 2,281 | 2,965 |
| growth % | 45.0 | 9.2 | 28.5 | 48.4 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 38 | 32 | 48 | 109 | 141 | 184 | 239 | 310 | 403 |
| margin % | 10.0 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 13.6 |
| less depreciation | (4) | (4) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (7) | (9) | (12) |
| EBIT | 35 | 29 | 45 | 105 | 137 | 178 | 232 | 301 | 391 |
| less tax on EBIT | (27) | (36) | (46) | (60) | (78) | (102) | |||
| NOPAT | 78 | 101 | 132 | 171 | 223 | 290 | |||
| add depreciation | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 |
| less capex | (1) | (2) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (4) | (6) | (9) | (14) |
| less working-capital build | — | (40) | (52) | (68) | (88) | (115) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 8 | 31 | (4) | — | 63 | 81 | 104 | 134 | 172 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 60 | 69 | 80 | 93 | 108 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 29, dividends at 31.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 105 | 137 | 178 | 232 | 301 | 391 |
| Interest at 17.3% on debt | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Profit before tax | 132 | 173 | 226 | 296 | 386 | |
| Profit after tax | 75 | 98 | 128 | 168 | 219 | 286 |
| Dividends | (24) | (31) | (40) | (52) | (69) | (89) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 34 | 63 | 100 | 148 | 210 | 289 |
| Working capital | 134 | 175 | 227 | 295 | 383 | 498 |
| Net block and other assets | 169 | 167 | 166 | 165 | 165 | 167 |
| Debt | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| Equity | 111 | 178 | 266 | 381 | 532 | 728 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 62 | 81 | 107 | 140 | 183 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2) | (4) | (6) | (9) | (14) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (31) | (40) | (52) | (69) | (89) | |
| Net change in cash | 29 | 37 | 48 | 62 | 79 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 59 | 77 | 101 | 130 | 169 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 13.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹218 | (65.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.