Models
TIMKEN INDIA LTD.TIMKENIndustrial Products
₹789per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹789implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 9.0×
Against CMP ₹3,302.20−76.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹608₹1,152
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,801₹3,925
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,046 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,623 |
| Enterprise value | 5,670 |
| less net debt | 268 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,938 |
| ÷ 7.52 crore shares | ₹789 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 815 | 877 | 950 | 1,040 | 1,152 |
| 10.50% | 751 | 802 | 862 | 935 | 1,023 |
| 11.00% | 697 | 739 | 789 | 848 | 919 |
| 11.50% | 649 | 686 | 728 | 777 | 835 |
| 12.00% | 608 | 639 | 675 | 716 | 765 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3,302.20; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 638 · 781 · 961 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.58 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.10 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,478 | 3,756 | 4,057 | 4,381 | 4,732 | 5,110 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 632 | 684 | 738 | 797 | 861 | 930 |
| margin % | 18.2 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 18.2 |
| less depreciation | (106) | (113) | (122) | (131) | (142) | (153) |
| EBIT | 526 | 571 | 617 | 666 | 719 | 777 |
| less tax on EBIT | (131) | (142) | (154) | (166) | (179) | (193) |
| NOPAT | 395 | 429 | 463 | 500 | 540 | 583 |
| add depreciation | 106 | 113 | 122 | 131 | 142 | 153 |
| less capex | (297) | (319) | (295) | (265) | (228) | (184) |
| less working-capital build | — | (79) | (85) | (92) | (100) | (108) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 143 | 204 | 274 | 354 | 445 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 136 | 175 | 211 | 246 | 278 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 65.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 526 | 571 | 617 | 666 | 719 | 777 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 571 | 617 | 666 | 719 | 777 | |
| Profit after tax | 415 | 429 | 463 | 500 | 540 | 583 |
| Dividends | (271) | (280) | (302) | (327) | (353) | (381) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 268 | 132 | 34 | (19) | (17) | 47 |
| Working capital | 989 | 1,068 | 1,153 | 1,246 | 1,345 | 1,453 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,443 | 2,649 | 2,823 | 2,956 | 3,043 | 3,073 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 2,915 | 3,063 | 3,224 | 3,398 | 3,585 | 3,787 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 462 | 499 | 539 | 583 | 629 | |
| Investing (capex) | (319) | (295) | (265) | (228) | (184) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (280) | (302) | (327) | (353) | (381) | |
| Net change in cash | (137) | (98) | (52) | 2 | 64 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 143 | 204 | 274 | 354 | 445 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 18.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹789 | (76.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.