Models
TINNA RUBBER AND INFR LTDTINNARUBRIndustrial Products
₹370per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹370implied FY26 P/E 10.6× · EV/EBITDA 8.4×
Against CMP ₹1,036.30−64.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies43.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3199%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹244₹622
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹527₹1,322
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 11 |
| PV of terminal value | 775 |
| Enterprise value | 786 |
| less net debt | (120) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 666 |
| ÷ 1.80 crore shares | ₹370 |
99% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 386 | 429 | 481 | 544 | 622 |
| 10.50% | 342 | 378 | 420 | 471 | 532 |
| 11.00% | 305 | 335 | 370 | 411 | 460 |
| 11.50% | 272 | 298 | 327 | 361 | 402 |
| 12.00% | 244 | 266 | 291 | 320 | 353 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,036.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 270 · 364 · 482 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.62 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.23 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 295 | 363 | 505 | 546 | 589 | 637 | 688 | 743 | 802 |
| growth % | 24.6 | 22.9 | 39.2 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 37 | 65 | 75 | 94 | 101 | 109 | 118 | 127 | 137 |
| margin % | 12.6 | 17.8 | 14.8 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 17.1 |
| less depreciation | (7) | (6) | (10) | (12) | (14) | (15) | (16) | (17) | (18) |
| EBIT | 30 | 58 | 65 | 81 | 87 | 94 | 102 | 110 | 119 |
| less tax on EBIT | (22) | (23) | (25) | (27) | (29) | (31) | |||
| NOPAT | 60 | 64 | 69 | 75 | 81 | 87 | |||
| add depreciation | 7 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| less capex | (7) | (73) | (69) | (109) | (118) | (100) | (79) | (53) | (22) |
| less working-capital build | — | (7) | (7) | (8) | (8) | (9) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 24 | (14) | (34) | — | (47) | (24) | 4 | 37 | 75 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (45) | (20) | 3 | 26 | 47 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 121, dividends at 13.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 81 | 87 | 94 | 102 | 110 | 119 |
| Interest at 8.5% on debt | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | |
| Profit before tax | 77 | 84 | 92 | 100 | 108 | |
| Profit after tax | 53 | 57 | 62 | 67 | 73 | 80 |
| Dividends | (7) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | (61) | (101) | (113) | (93) | (36) |
| Working capital | 82 | 88 | 96 | 103 | 111 | 120 |
| Net block and other assets | 446 | 551 | 637 | 699 | 735 | 739 |
| Debt | 121 | 121 | 121 | 121 | 121 | 121 |
| Equity | 300 | 350 | 403 | 461 | 525 | 594 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 64 | 69 | 75 | 82 | 89 | |
| Investing (capex) | (118) | (100) | (79) | (53) | (22) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | |
| Net change in cash | (62) | (39) | (12) | 20 | 57 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (55) | (31) | (3) | 29 | 67 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 17.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹370 | (64.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.