Models
TIPS MUSIC LIMITEDTIPSMUSICEntertainment
₹525per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹525implied FY26 P/E 31.3× · EV/EBITDA 24.3×
Against CMP ₹660.30−20.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies27.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹401₹772
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹481₹741
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,356 |
| PV of terminal value | 5,351 |
| Enterprise value | 6,707 |
| less net debt | 7 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,714 |
| ÷ 12.78 crore shares | ₹525 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 543 | 585 | 635 | 696 | 772 |
| 10.50% | 499 | 534 | 575 | 624 | 684 |
| 11.00% | 462 | 491 | 525 | 565 | 614 |
| 11.50% | 430 | 455 | 483 | 517 | 556 |
| 12.00% | 401 | 423 | 447 | 475 | 508 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹660.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 406 · 523 · 671 |
| Draws below the CMP | 89% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.37 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 187 | 242 | 311 | 376 | 454 | 550 | 665 | 805 | 974 |
| growth % | 37.8 | 29.3 | 28.6 | 20.9 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 |
| EBITDA | 102 | 158 | 207 | 276 | 334 | 404 | 488 | 591 | 715 |
| margin % | 54.6 | 65.6 | 66.5 | 73.4 | 73.4 | 73.4 | 73.4 | 73.4 | 73.4 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) |
| EBIT | 101 | 156 | 204 | 273 | 330 | 400 | 484 | 585 | 708 |
| less tax on EBIT | (70) | (85) | (103) | (124) | (150) | (182) | |||
| NOPAT | 203 | 245 | 297 | 359 | 435 | 526 | |||
| add depreciation | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| less capex | (1) | (3) | (2) | (6) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) |
| less working-capital build | — | (4) | (5) | (6) | (8) | (9) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 82 | 230 | 119 | — | 236 | 287 | 349 | 424 | 515 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 224 | 246 | 269 | 294 | 322 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 76.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 273 | 330 | 400 | 484 | 585 | 708 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 330 | 400 | 484 | 585 | 708 | |
| Profit after tax | 217 | 245 | 297 | 359 | 435 | 526 |
| Dividends | (166) | (188) | (228) | (276) | (333) | (404) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 7 | 55 | 115 | 188 | 279 | 391 |
| Working capital | 21 | 26 | 31 | 37 | 45 | 55 |
| Net block and other assets | 334 | 338 | 343 | 346 | 349 | 351 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 260 | 317 | 386 | 470 | 571 | 694 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 244 | 295 | 358 | 433 | 523 | |
| Investing (capex) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (188) | (228) | (276) | (333) | (404) | |
| Net change in cash | 48 | 60 | 73 | 91 | 112 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 236 | 287 | 349 | 424 | 515 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 21% | 73.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹525 | (20.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.