Models
TITAGARH RAIL SYSTEMS LTDTITAGARHIndustrial Manufacturing
₹143per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹143implied FY26 P/E 10.0× · EV/EBITDA 8.1×
Against CMP ₹842.80−83.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3167%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹109₹210
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹569₹971
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 751 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,529 |
| Enterprise value | 2,280 |
| less net debt | (360) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,920 |
| ÷ 13.47 crore shares | ₹143 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 148 | 159 | 173 | 189 | 210 |
| 10.50% | 136 | 145 | 156 | 170 | 186 |
| 11.00% | 125 | 133 | 143 | 154 | 167 |
| 11.50% | 117 | 123 | 131 | 140 | 151 |
| 12.00% | 109 | 114 | 121 | 129 | 138 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹842.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 120 · 143 · 170 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.76 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.63 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,780 | 3,853 | 3,868 | 3,186 | 3,027 | 2,875 | 2,731 | 2,595 | 2,465 |
| growth % | 44.0 | 38.6 | 0.4 | (17.6) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 263 | 449 | 433 | 283 | 269 | 256 | 243 | 231 | 219 |
| margin % | 9.5 | 11.7 | 11.2 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 |
| less depreciation | (23) | (27) | (30) | (51) | (48) | (46) | (44) | (42) | (39) |
| EBIT | 241 | 422 | 403 | 232 | 221 | 210 | 199 | 189 | 180 |
| less tax on EBIT | (79) | (75) | (71) | (68) | (64) | (61) | |||
| NOPAT | 153 | 146 | 139 | 132 | 125 | 119 | |||
| add depreciation | 23 | 27 | 30 | 51 | 48 | 46 | 44 | 42 | 39 |
| less capex | (37) | (164) | (220) | (7) | (6) | (18) | (29) | (39) | (47) |
| less working-capital build | — | 44 | 42 | 40 | 38 | 36 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 4 | (78) | (317) | — | 233 | 209 | 187 | 166 | 147 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 221 | 179 | 144 | 115 | 92 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 522, dividends at 39.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 232 | 221 | 210 | 199 | 189 | 180 |
| Interest at 13.5% on debt | (70) | (70) | (70) | (70) | (70) | |
| Profit before tax | 150 | 139 | 129 | 119 | 110 | |
| Profit after tax | 123 | 99 | 92 | 85 | 79 | 72 |
| Dividends | (49) | (40) | (37) | (34) | (31) | (29) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 162 | 308 | 434 | 540 | 628 | 700 |
| Working capital | 888 | 843 | 801 | 761 | 723 | 687 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,990 | 2,947 | 2,919 | 2,905 | 2,902 | 2,910 |
| Debt | 522 | 522 | 522 | 522 | 522 | 522 |
| Equity | 2,457 | 2,517 | 2,572 | 2,623 | 2,670 | 2,714 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 192 | 180 | 169 | 158 | 148 | |
| Investing (capex) | (6) | (18) | (29) | (39) | (47) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (40) | (37) | (34) | (31) | (29) | |
| Net change in cash | 147 | 126 | 106 | 88 | 72 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 186 | 162 | 140 | 120 | 101 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 8.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹143 | (83.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.