Models
TITAN BIOTECH LTD.BSE 524717Chemicals & Petrochemicals
₹77per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹77implied FY26 P/E 2.6× · EV/EBITDA 8.2×
Against CMP ₹437.80−82.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3185%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹57₹115
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹132₹556
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 48 |
| PV of terminal value | 270 |
| Enterprise value | 318 |
| less net debt | (2) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 316 |
| ÷ 4.13 crore shares | ₹77 |
85% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 79 | 86 | 94 | 103 | 115 |
| 10.50% | 72 | 78 | 84 | 92 | 101 |
| 11.00% | 67 | 71 | 77 | 83 | 90 |
| 11.50% | 62 | 66 | 70 | 75 | 81 |
| 12.00% | 57 | 61 | 64 | 69 | 74 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹437.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 34 · 75 · 109 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.39 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.25 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 144 | 164 | 156 | 206 | 268 | 348 | 453 | 589 | 766 |
| growth % | (5.8) | 13.9 | (4.6) | 31.8 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 30 | 34 | 25 | 39 | 50 | 65 | 85 | 110 | 143 |
| margin % | 20.5 | 20.9 | 16.3 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 18.7 |
| less depreciation | (3) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (8) | (11) | (14) | (18) |
| EBIT | 27 | 31 | 21 | 34 | 44 | 57 | 74 | 96 | 125 |
| less tax on EBIT | (9) | (12) | (16) | (21) | (27) | (35) | |||
| NOPAT | 24 | 31 | 41 | 53 | 69 | 90 | |||
| add depreciation | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 18 |
| less capex | (13) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (12) | (14) | (17) | (19) | (22) |
| less working-capital build | — | (21) | (27) | (36) | (46) | (60) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 8 | 12 | 11 | — | 5 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 26 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 5 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 16 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 4, dividends at 5.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 34 | 44 | 57 | 74 | 96 | 125 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 43 | 57 | 74 | 96 | 124 | |
| Profit after tax | 30 | 31 | 41 | 53 | 69 | 90 |
| Dividends | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 32 | 52 |
| Working capital | 70 | 91 | 118 | 154 | 200 | 260 |
| Net block and other assets | 142 | 148 | 154 | 160 | 165 | 169 |
| Debt | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Equity | 182 | 211 | 249 | 299 | 364 | 449 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 17 | 22 | 28 | 37 | 48 | |
| Investing (capex) | (12) | (14) | (17) | (19) | (22) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
| Net change in cash | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 21 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 5 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 26 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 18.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹77 | (82.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.