₹1,285per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,285implied FY26 P/E 20.5× · EV/EBITDA 12.8×
Against CMP ₹4,965.50−74.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹900₹2,052
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹3,481₹5,250
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 13,252 |
| PV of terminal value | 43,921 |
| Enterprise value | 57,173 |
| less net debt | (13,681) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 43,492 |
| ÷ 33.85 crore shares | ₹1,285 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,341 | 1,470 | 1,626 | 1,815 | 2,052 |
| 10.50% | 1,205 | 1,313 | 1,440 | 1,592 | 1,778 |
| 11.00% | 1,089 | 1,179 | 1,285 | 1,410 | 1,559 |
| 11.50% | 988 | 1,065 | 1,154 | 1,258 | 1,380 |
| 12.00% | 900 | 967 | 1,042 | 1,129 | 1,231 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹4,965.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 877 · 1,261 · 1,747 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.45 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.40 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9,620 | 10,728 | 11,516 | 13,980 | 16,986 | 20,638 | 25,075 | 30,466 | 37,016 |
| growth % | 13.1 | 11.5 | 7.3 | 21.4 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 |
| EBITDA | 2,842 | 3,456 | 3,697 | 4,470 | 5,435 | 6,604 | 8,024 | 9,749 | 11,845 |
| margin % | 29.5 | 32.2 | 32.1 | 32.0 | 32.0 | 32.0 | 32.0 | 32.0 | 32.0 |
| less depreciation | (707) | (808) | (795) | (1,119) | (1,359) | (1,651) | (2,006) | (2,437) | (2,961) |
| EBIT | 2,135 | 2,648 | 2,902 | 3,351 | 4,077 | 4,953 | 6,018 | 7,312 | 8,884 |
| less tax on EBIT | (858) | (1,044) | (1,268) | (1,541) | (1,872) | (2,274) | |||
| NOPAT | 2,493 | 3,033 | 3,685 | 4,477 | 5,440 | 6,610 | |||
| add depreciation | 707 | 808 | 795 | 1,119 | 1,359 | 1,651 | 2,006 | 2,437 | 2,961 |
| less capex | (574) | (433) | (611) | (677) | (815) | (1,238) | (1,805) | (2,559) | (3,554) |
| less working-capital build | — | (821) | (997) | (1,211) | (1,472) | (1,788) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,794 | 2,833 | 1,974 | — | 2,756 | 3,101 | 3,467 | 3,846 | 4,229 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 2,616 | 2,652 | 2,671 | 2,669 | 2,644 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 14,798, dividends at 59.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 3,351 | 4,077 | 4,953 | 6,018 | 7,312 | 8,884 |
| Interest at 4.3% on debt | (636) | (636) | (636) | (636) | (636) | |
| Profit before tax | 3,440 | 4,317 | 5,382 | 6,675 | 8,248 | |
| Profit after tax | 2,163 | 2,560 | 3,212 | 4,004 | 4,967 | 6,136 |
| Dividends | (1,289) | (1,525) | (1,914) | (2,386) | (2,960) | (3,657) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,117 | 1,874 | 2,587 | 3,194 | 3,607 | 3,706 |
| Working capital | 3,811 | 4,632 | 5,629 | 6,840 | 8,312 | 10,100 |
| Net block and other assets | 39,384 | 38,840 | 38,428 | 38,227 | 38,349 | 38,941 |
| Debt | 14,798 | 14,798 | 14,798 | 14,798 | 14,798 | 14,798 |
| Equity | 17,585 | 18,619 | 19,917 | 21,534 | 23,541 | 26,020 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 3,098 | 3,866 | 4,799 | 5,932 | 7,309 | |
| Investing (capex) | (815) | (1,238) | (1,805) | (2,559) | (3,554) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1,525) | (1,914) | (2,386) | (2,960) | (3,657) | |
| Net change in cash | 757 | 713 | 607 | 413 | 99 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2,283 | 2,627 | 2,993 | 3,373 | 3,756 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 21.5% | 32% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,285 | (74.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.