TPL PLASTECH LIMITED — valuation model

TPL PLASTECH LIMITEDTPLPLASTEHIndustrial Products

₹76per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹76implied FY26 P/E 19.6× · EV/EBITDA 12.6×

Against CMP ₹68.13+10.9%close of 2026-09-10

Growth the CMP implies12.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹57₹113

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹50₹90

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	118
PV of terminal value	489
Enterprise value	607
less net debt	(18)
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	589
÷ 7.80 crore shares	₹76

81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	78	84	92	101	113
10.50%	72	77	83	90	99
11.00%	66	70	76	82	89
11.50%	61	65	69	74	80
12.00%	57	60	64	68	73

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹68.13; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	57 · 74 · 96
Draws below the CMP	33%
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.83
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.48
Rank correlation with revenue growth	+0.15

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY21	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	170	313	349	423	511	619	749	906	1,096
growth %	(21.2)	83.5	11.6	21.0	21.0	21.0	21.0	21.0	21.0
EBITDA	20	36	41	48	58	71	85	103	125
margin %	11.9	11.5	11.6	11.4	11.4	11.4	11.4	11.4	11.4
less depreciation	(4)	(6)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(9)	(10)	(13)	(15)
EBIT	17	30	35	42	51	62	75	91	110
less tax on EBIT				(9)	(11)	(14)	(17)	(20)	(24)
NOPAT				33	40	48	58	71	85
add depreciation	4	6	5	6	7	9	10	13	15
less capex	(4)	(16)	(24)	(9)	(11)	(13)	(15)	(16)	(18)
less working-capital build				—	(16)	(20)	(24)	(29)	(35)
Free cash flow to firm	17	13	(8)	—	19	24	30	38	47
Discount factor					0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value					18	21	23	26	29

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 18, dividends at 0% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	42	51	62	75	91	110
Interest at 16.8% on debt		(3)	(3)	(3)	(3)	(3)
Profit before tax		48	59	72	88	107
Profit after tax	0	38	46	56	68	83
Dividends	(8)	0	0	0	0	0
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	0	17	39	67	102	147
Working capital	78	95	115	139	168	203
Net block and other assets	178	182	186	190	194	197
Debt	18	18	18	18	18	18
Equity	169	206	252	308	377	460
Balance check	0	(0)	0	0	0	(0)
Cash flow
From operations		28	35	42	52	63
Investing (capex)		(11)	(13)	(15)	(16)	(18)
Financing (dividends)		0	0	0	0	0
Net change in cash		17	22	28	35	45
Free cash flow to equity		17	22	28	35	45

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	21%	11.4%	11.00%	5%	₹76	10.9%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.