Models
TRANS & RECTI. LTDTARILElectrical Equipment
₹7per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹7implied FY26 P/E 0.9× · EV/EBITDA 1.8×
Against CMP ₹290.00−97.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31110%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹0₹22
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹224₹552
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (65) |
| PV of terminal value | 739 |
| Enterprise value | 674 |
| less net debt | (449) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 225 |
| ÷ 30.02 crore shares | ₹7 |
110% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 8 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 22 |
| 10.50% | 6 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 17 |
| 11.00% | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 13 |
| 11.50% | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 |
| 12.00% | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹290.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (70) · 7 · 62 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.82 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.55 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.05 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,381 | 1,295 | 2,019 | 2,509 | 3,111 | 3,858 | 4,783 | 5,931 | 7,355 |
| growth % | 19.2 | (6.2) | 56.0 | 24.2 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 |
| EBITDA | 121 | 134 | 331 | 383 | 476 | 590 | 732 | 907 | 1,125 |
| margin % | 8.8 | 10.4 | 16.4 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.3 |
| less depreciation | (25) | (25) | (27) | (30) | (37) | (46) | (57) | (71) | (88) |
| EBIT | 97 | 109 | 304 | 353 | 439 | 544 | 674 | 836 | 1,037 |
| less tax on EBIT | (88) | (110) | (136) | (169) | (209) | (259) | |||
| NOPAT | 265 | 329 | 408 | 506 | 627 | 778 | |||
| add depreciation | 25 | 25 | 27 | 30 | 37 | 46 | 57 | 71 | 88 |
| less capex | (10) | (1) | (235) | (109) | (137) | (141) | (140) | (129) | (106) |
| less working-capital build | — | (291) | (361) | (448) | (556) | (689) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 18 | 29 | (78) | — | (62) | (48) | (25) | 13 | 71 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (59) | (41) | (19) | 9 | 44 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 457, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 353 | 439 | 544 | 674 | 836 | 1,037 |
| Interest at 13.8% on debt | (63) | (63) | (63) | (63) | (63) | |
| Profit before tax | 376 | 481 | 611 | 773 | 974 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 282 | 361 | 459 | 580 | 731 |
| Dividends | (7) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 8 | (101) | (197) | (269) | (302) | (278) |
| Working capital | 1,213 | 1,505 | 1,866 | 2,314 | 2,870 | 3,559 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,444 | 1,544 | 1,639 | 1,721 | 1,779 | 1,797 |
| Debt | 457 | 457 | 457 | 457 | 457 | 457 |
| Equity | 1,543 | 1,825 | 2,185 | 2,644 | 3,224 | 3,954 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 28 | 46 | 68 | 96 | 130 | |
| Investing (capex) | (137) | (141) | (140) | (129) | (106) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (109) | (96) | (72) | (34) | 24 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (109) | (96) | (72) | (34) | 24 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 24% | 15.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹7 | (97.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.