Models
TRANSPEK INDUSTRIES LTDTRANSPEKChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹720per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹720implied FY26 P/E 8.8× · EV/EBITDA 4.1×
Against CMP ₹1,307.10−44.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3164%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹588₹983
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹952₹1,475
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 141 |
| PV of terminal value | 246 |
| Enterprise value | 387 |
| less net debt | 15 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 402 |
| ÷ 0.56 crore shares | ₹720 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 741 | 785 | 838 | 902 | 983 |
| 10.50% | 694 | 731 | 774 | 825 | 889 |
| 11.00% | 654 | 684 | 720 | 763 | 814 |
| 11.50% | 619 | 645 | 675 | 710 | 752 |
| 12.00% | 588 | 611 | 636 | 666 | 701 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,307.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 566 · 722 · 892 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.89 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.43 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 827 | 580 | 650 | 621 | 593 | 567 | 541 | 517 | 493 |
| growth % | 38.0 | (29.9) | 12.1 | (4.4) | (4.5) | (4.5) | (4.5) | (4.5) | (4.5) |
| EBITDA | 147 | 82 | 95 | 93 | 89 | 85 | 81 | 78 | 74 |
| margin % | 17.8 | 14.2 | 14.6 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| less depreciation | (33) | (38) | (50) | (49) | (46) | (44) | (42) | (40) | (38) |
| EBIT | 114 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 43 | 41 | 39 | 37 | 36 |
| less tax on EBIT | (11) | (11) | (10) | (10) | (9) | (9) | |||
| NOPAT | 33 | 32 | 30 | 29 | 28 | 27 | |||
| add depreciation | 33 | 38 | 50 | 49 | 46 | 44 | 42 | 40 | 38 |
| less capex | (49) | (40) | (21) | (38) | (37) | (40) | (42) | (44) | (46) |
| less working-capital build | — | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 62 | 58 | 114 | — | 47 | 41 | 35 | 29 | 24 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 45 | 35 | 27 | 20 | 15 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 42, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 45 | 43 | 41 | 39 | 37 | 36 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Profit before tax | 39 | 37 | 36 | 34 | 32 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 29 | 28 | 27 | 25 | 24 |
| Dividends | (11) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 58 | 103 | 141 | 173 | 199 | 220 |
| Working capital | 131 | 125 | 120 | 114 | 109 | 104 |
| Net block and other assets | 819 | 810 | 805 | 805 | 809 | 817 |
| Debt | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 |
| Equity | 767 | 797 | 825 | 851 | 876 | 900 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 82 | 78 | 74 | 71 | 67 | |
| Investing (capex) | (37) | (40) | (42) | (44) | (46) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 45 | 38 | 32 | 26 | 21 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 45 | 38 | 32 | 26 | 21 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -4.5% | 15% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹720 | (44.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.