Models
TRANSPORT CORPN OF INDIATCITransport Services
₹666per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹666implied FY26 P/E 11.2× · EV/EBITDA 10.2×
Against CMP ₹855.40−22.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies19.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3186%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹493₹1,012
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹853₹1,242
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 733 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,521 |
| Enterprise value | 5,254 |
| less net debt | (126) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,128 |
| ÷ 7.70 crore shares | ₹666 |
86% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 690 | 749 | 819 | 905 | 1,012 |
| 10.50% | 629 | 678 | 735 | 804 | 889 |
| 11.00% | 577 | 618 | 666 | 722 | 790 |
| 11.50% | 532 | 567 | 607 | 654 | 710 |
| 12.00% | 493 | 523 | 557 | 597 | 643 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹855.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 510 · 659 · 837 |
| Draws below the CMP | 92% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.54 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.22 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,783 | 4,024 | 4,492 | 4,917 | 5,384 | 5,895 | 6,455 | 7,069 | 7,740 |
| growth % | 16.1 | 6.4 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| EBITDA | 421 | 408 | 461 | 517 | 565 | 619 | 678 | 742 | 813 |
| margin % | 11.1 | 10.1 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| less depreciation | (121) | (128) | (118) | (127) | (140) | (153) | (168) | (184) | (201) |
| EBIT | 299 | 280 | 343 | 390 | 425 | 466 | 510 | 558 | 611 |
| less tax on EBIT | (37) | (41) | (45) | (49) | (54) | (59) | |||
| NOPAT | 352 | 384 | 421 | 461 | 505 | 553 | |||
| add depreciation | 121 | 128 | 118 | 127 | 140 | 153 | 168 | 184 | 201 |
| less capex | (156) | (243) | (354) | (414) | (452) | (417) | (372) | (314) | (241) |
| less working-capital build | — | (54) | (59) | (64) | (71) | (77) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 205 | 57 | 5 | — | 19 | 98 | 193 | 304 | 435 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 18 | 84 | 148 | 211 | 272 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 219, dividends at 15.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 390 | 425 | 466 | 510 | 558 | 611 |
| Interest at 12.2% on debt | (27) | (27) | (27) | (27) | (27) | |
| Profit before tax | 399 | 439 | 483 | 532 | 585 | |
| Profit after tax | 460 | 360 | 397 | 437 | 481 | 529 |
| Dividends | (70) | (55) | (60) | (66) | (73) | (80) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 93 | 33 | 46 | 149 | 356 | 686 |
| Working capital | 564 | 618 | 677 | 741 | 812 | 889 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,824 | 3,136 | 3,401 | 3,605 | 3,735 | 3,775 |
| Debt | 219 | 219 | 219 | 219 | 219 | 219 |
| Equity | 2,605 | 2,911 | 3,247 | 3,618 | 4,025 | 4,474 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 447 | 491 | 540 | 594 | 653 | |
| Investing (capex) | (452) | (417) | (372) | (314) | (241) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (55) | (60) | (66) | (73) | (80) | |
| Net change in cash | (60) | 14 | 102 | 207 | 331 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (6) | 74 | 169 | 280 | 411 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9.5% | 10.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹666 | (22.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.