Models
TRANSRAIL LIGHTING LTDTRANSRAILLElectrical Equipment
₹1,699per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,699implied FY26 P/E 44.6× · EV/EBITDA 28.8×
Against CMP ₹412.50+311.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(3.8)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3184%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,275₹2,547
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹416₹823
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 3,772 |
| PV of terminal value | 19,305 |
| Enterprise value | 23,078 |
| less net debt | (274) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 22,804 |
| ÷ 13.43 crore shares | ₹1,699 |
84% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,759 | 1,902 | 2,074 | 2,284 | 2,547 |
| 10.50% | 1,609 | 1,728 | 1,869 | 2,038 | 2,244 |
| 11.00% | 1,481 | 1,582 | 1,699 | 1,837 | 2,003 |
| 11.50% | 1,371 | 1,456 | 1,555 | 1,670 | 1,805 |
| 12.00% | 1,275 | 1,348 | 1,432 | 1,528 | 1,641 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹412.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,214 · 1,688 · 2,313 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.32 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,308 | 6,880 | 8,910 | 11,538 | 14,942 | 19,350 | 25,058 |
| growth % | — | 29.6 | 29.5 | 29.5 | 29.5 | 29.5 | 29.5 |
| EBITDA | 673 | 802 | 1,042 | 1,350 | 1,748 | 2,264 | 2,932 |
| margin % | 12.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 |
| less depreciation | (56) | (66) | (89) | (115) | (149) | (193) | (251) |
| EBIT | 617 | 736 | 953 | 1,235 | 1,599 | 2,070 | 2,681 |
| less tax on EBIT | (212) | (275) | (356) | (460) | (596) | (772) | |
| NOPAT | 524 | 679 | 879 | 1,138 | 1,474 | 1,909 | |
| add depreciation | 56 | 66 | 89 | 115 | 149 | 193 | 251 |
| less capex | (142) | (249) | (321) | (346) | (359) | (348) | (301) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 145 | — | 447 | 648 | 929 | 1,319 | 1,859 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 424 | 554 | 716 | 916 | 1,162 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 659, dividends at 2.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 736 | 953 | 1,235 | 1,599 | 2,070 | 2,681 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (53) | (53) | (53) | (53) | (53) | |
| Profit before tax | 901 | 1,182 | 1,546 | 2,018 | 2,628 | |
| Profit after tax | 404 | 641 | 841 | 1,101 | 1,437 | 1,871 |
| Dividends | (11) | (17) | (23) | (30) | (39) | (51) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 385 | 777 | 1,365 | 2,227 | 3,470 | 5,241 |
| Working capital | (281) | (281) | (281) | (281) | (281) | (281) |
| Net block and other assets | 7,250 | 7,482 | 7,713 | 7,922 | 8,077 | 8,127 |
| Debt | 659 | 659 | 659 | 659 | 659 | 659 |
| Equity | 2,281 | 2,905 | 3,724 | 4,795 | 6,193 | 8,014 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 730 | 957 | 1,250 | 1,630 | 2,122 | |
| Investing (capex) | (321) | (346) | (359) | (348) | (301) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (17) | (23) | (30) | (39) | (51) | |
| Net change in cash | 392 | 588 | 862 | 1,243 | 1,771 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 410 | 611 | 892 | 1,282 | 1,821 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 29.5% | 11.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,699 | 311.8% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.