Models
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₹708per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹708implied FY26 P/E 15.4× · EV/EBITDA 10.4×
Against CMP ₹2,802.40−74.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹540₹1,041
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,184₹3,507
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 7,811 |
| PV of terminal value | 30,135 |
| Enterprise value | 37,946 |
| less net debt | (219) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 37,727 |
| ÷ 53.32 crore shares | ₹708 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 732 | 788 | 856 | 938 | 1,041 |
| 10.50% | 673 | 719 | 775 | 841 | 922 |
| 11.00% | 622 | 662 | 708 | 762 | 827 |
| 11.50% | 579 | 612 | 651 | 696 | 749 |
| 12.00% | 540 | 569 | 602 | 640 | 684 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,802.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 523 · 699 · 921 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.74 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.46 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.42 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8,242 | 12,375 | 17,135 | 20,074 | 23,487 | 27,480 | 32,151 | 37,617 | 44,012 |
| growth % | 83.2 | 50.1 | 38.5 | 17.2 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,071 | 2,498 | 2,758 | 3,647 | 4,275 | 5,001 | 5,852 | 6,846 | 8,010 |
| margin % | 13.0 | 20.2 | 16.1 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 18.2 |
| less depreciation | (494) | (671) | (895) | (1,361) | (1,597) | (1,869) | (2,186) | (2,558) | (2,993) |
| EBIT | 577 | 1,827 | 1,863 | 2,286 | 2,677 | 3,133 | 3,665 | 4,288 | 5,017 |
| less tax on EBIT | (528) | (619) | (724) | (847) | (991) | (1,159) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,758 | 2,059 | 2,409 | 2,819 | 3,298 | 3,858 | |||
| add depreciation | 494 | 671 | 895 | 1,361 | 1,597 | 1,869 | 2,186 | 2,558 | 2,993 |
| less capex | (503) | (737) | (1,268) | (1,763) | (2,067) | (2,374) | (2,726) | (3,130) | (3,591) |
| less working-capital build | — | (191) | (224) | (262) | (306) | (358) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 91 | 612 | 393 | — | 1,398 | 1,680 | 2,017 | 2,420 | 2,902 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,327 | 1,436 | 1,554 | 1,679 | 1,814 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 500, dividends at 10.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 2,286 | 2,677 | 3,133 | 3,665 | 4,288 | 5,017 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (40) | (40) | (40) | (40) | (40) | |
| Profit before tax | 2,638 | 3,093 | 3,625 | 4,248 | 4,977 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,720 | 2,028 | 2,378 | 2,788 | 3,267 | 3,828 |
| Dividends | (177) | (209) | (245) | (287) | (336) | (394) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 281 | 1,440 | 2,844 | 4,543 | 6,595 | 9,072 |
| Working capital | 1,127 | 1,319 | 1,542 | 1,804 | 2,110 | 2,468 |
| Net block and other assets | 10,320 | 10,790 | 11,295 | 11,835 | 12,407 | 13,006 |
| Debt | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Equity | 7,108 | 8,927 | 11,061 | 13,561 | 16,492 | 19,925 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 3,434 | 4,023 | 4,712 | 5,519 | 6,462 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2,067) | (2,374) | (2,726) | (3,130) | (3,591) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (209) | (245) | (287) | (336) | (394) | |
| Net change in cash | 1,158 | 1,404 | 1,699 | 2,053 | 2,477 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,367 | 1,649 | 1,986 | 2,389 | 2,871 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 17% | 18.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹708 | (74.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.