Models
TRUALT BIOENERGY LIMITEDTRUALTAgricultural Food & other Products
₹-100per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(100)implied FY26 P/E (6.1)× · EV/EBITDA 2.4×
Against CMP ₹414.00−124.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31186%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(143)₹(11)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹310₹549
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (602) |
| PV of terminal value | 1,304 |
| Enterprise value | 702 |
| less net debt | (1,557) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (855) |
| ÷ 8.58 crore shares | ₹(100) |
186% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (95) | (80) | (61) | (39) | (11) |
| 10.50% | (110) | (97) | (82) | (64) | (43) |
| 11.00% | (123) | (112) | (100) | (85) | (68) |
| 11.50% | (134) | (125) | (114) | (102) | (88) |
| 12.00% | (143) | (136) | (127) | (116) | (104) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹414.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (158) · (101) · (43) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.88 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.37 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.25 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,728 | 1,866 | 2,015 | 2,176 | 2,350 | 2,538 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 290 | 313 | 339 | 366 | 395 | 426 |
| margin % | 16.8 | 16.8 | 16.8 | 16.8 | 16.8 | 16.8 |
| less depreciation | (86) | (93) | (101) | (109) | (118) | (127) |
| EBIT | 204 | 220 | 238 | 257 | 277 | 300 |
| less tax on EBIT | (52) | (56) | (61) | (65) | (71) | (76) |
| NOPAT | 152 | 164 | 177 | 191 | 207 | 223 |
| add depreciation | 86 | 93 | 101 | 109 | 118 | 127 |
| less capex | (511) | (552) | (478) | (387) | (280) | (152) |
| less working-capital build | — | (53) | (57) | (62) | (67) | (72) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | (348) | (257) | (149) | (22) | 126 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | (330) | (220) | (115) | (16) | 79 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,646, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 204 | 220 | 238 | 257 | 277 | 300 |
| Interest at 9.7% on debt | (160) | (160) | (160) | (160) | (160) | |
| Profit before tax | 61 | 78 | 97 | 118 | 140 | |
| Profit after tax | 96 | 45 | 58 | 72 | 88 | 104 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 88 | (379) | (755) | (1,023) | (1,164) | (1,157) |
| Working capital | 663 | 716 | 773 | 835 | 902 | 974 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,027 | 3,486 | 3,863 | 4,142 | 4,304 | 4,329 |
| Debt | 1,646 | 1,646 | 1,646 | 1,646 | 1,646 | 1,646 |
| Equity | 1,578 | 1,623 | 1,682 | 1,754 | 1,842 | 1,946 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 85 | 102 | 119 | 138 | 159 | |
| Investing (capex) | (552) | (478) | (387) | (280) | (152) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (467) | (376) | (268) | (141) | 7 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (467) | (376) | (268) | (141) | 7 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 16.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(100) | (124.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.