Models
TRUE GREEN BIO ENERGY LIMITEDBSE 533407Textiles & Apparels
₹81per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹81implied FY26 P/E 5.2× · EV/EBITDA 9.7×
Against CMP ₹206.40−61.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31126%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹16₹212
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹53₹255
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (155) |
| PV of terminal value | 741 |
| Enterprise value | 587 |
| less net debt | (321) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 266 |
| ÷ 3.30 crore shares | ₹81 |
126% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 89 | 111 | 138 | 171 | 212 |
| 10.50% | 66 | 85 | 107 | 133 | 165 |
| 11.00% | 47 | 62 | 81 | 102 | 128 |
| 11.50% | 30 | 43 | 59 | 77 | 98 |
| 12.00% | 16 | 27 | 40 | 55 | 73 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹206.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 5 · 76 · 155 |
| Draws below the CMP | 98% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.43 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.05 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 0 | 0 | 23 | 284 | 369 | 479 | 623 | 810 | 1,053 |
| growth % | (100.0) | — | — | 1118.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | (0) | (2) | 0 | 61 | 79 | 103 | 133 | 173 | 225 |
| margin % | — | — | 1.2 | 21.4 | 21.4 | 21.4 | 21.4 | 21.4 | 21.4 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (2) | (2) | (6) | (8) | (11) | (14) | (18) | (23) |
| EBIT | (2) | (4) | (1) | 54 | 71 | 92 | 120 | 156 | 202 |
| less tax on EBIT | (14) | (18) | (23) | (30) | (40) | (51) | |||
| NOPAT | 41 | 53 | 69 | 89 | 116 | 151 | |||
| add depreciation | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 23 |
| less capex | (4) | (41) | (157) | (95) | (124) | (124) | (113) | (84) | (28) |
| less working-capital build | — | (26) | (34) | (44) | (58) | (75) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (29) | (38) | (188) | — | (89) | (79) | (54) | (8) | 71 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (85) | (67) | (42) | (5) | 45 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 340, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 54 | 71 | 92 | 120 | 156 | 202 |
| Interest at 5% on debt | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | |
| Profit before tax | 54 | 75 | 103 | 139 | 185 | |
| Profit after tax | 31 | 40 | 56 | 77 | 103 | 138 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 19 | (83) | (174) | (241) | (262) | (203) |
| Working capital | 87 | 113 | 148 | 192 | 249 | 324 |
| Net block and other assets | 451 | 567 | 681 | 780 | 846 | 851 |
| Debt | 340 | 340 | 340 | 340 | 340 | 340 |
| Equity | 159 | 199 | 255 | 332 | 435 | 573 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 22 | 32 | 46 | 64 | 86 | |
| Investing (capex) | (124) | (124) | (113) | (84) | (28) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (102) | (92) | (67) | (21) | 59 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (102) | (92) | (67) | (21) | 59 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 21.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹81 | (61.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.