Models
TUBE INVEST OF INDIA LTDTIINDIAAuto Components
₹393per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹393implied FY26 P/E 12.5× · EV/EBITDA 3.4×
Against CMP ₹2,606.10−84.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3199%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹282₹617
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,165₹3,420
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 86 |
| PV of terminal value | 7,386 |
| Enterprise value | 7,472 |
| less net debt | 140 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 7,612 |
| ÷ 19.36 crore shares | ₹393 |
99% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 408 | 446 | 492 | 548 | 617 |
| 10.50% | 369 | 401 | 438 | 483 | 537 |
| 11.00% | 336 | 362 | 393 | 430 | 474 |
| 11.50% | 307 | 329 | 356 | 386 | 422 |
| 12.00% | 282 | 301 | 323 | 349 | 379 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,606.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 153 · 387 · 606 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.89 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.35 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.24 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 14,965 | 16,890 | 19,465 | 22,847 | 26,846 | 31,544 | 37,064 | 43,550 | 51,171 |
| growth % | 19.5 | 12.9 | 15.2 | 17.4 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,896 | 1,950 | 1,838 | 2,190 | 2,577 | 3,028 | 3,558 | 4,181 | 4,912 |
| margin % | 12.7 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 |
| less depreciation | (396) | (465) | (492) | (664) | (779) | (915) | (1,075) | (1,263) | (1,484) |
| EBIT | 1,500 | 1,484 | 1,346 | 1,526 | 1,799 | 2,113 | 2,483 | 2,918 | 3,428 |
| less tax on EBIT | (606) | (714) | (839) | (986) | (1,158) | (1,361) | |||
| NOPAT | 920 | 1,085 | 1,274 | 1,497 | 1,759 | 2,067 | |||
| add depreciation | 396 | 465 | 492 | 664 | 779 | 915 | 1,075 | 1,263 | 1,484 |
| less capex | (416) | (851) | (1,213) | (1,433) | (1,691) | (1,765) | (1,812) | (1,823) | (1,781) |
| less working-capital build | — | (556) | (653) | (767) | (902) | (1,059) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 970 | (176) | 0 | — | (384) | (229) | (7) | 298 | 711 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (364) | (196) | (6) | 207 | 445 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 392, dividends at 26.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,526 | 1,799 | 2,113 | 2,483 | 2,918 | 3,428 |
| Interest at 14.8% on debt | (58) | (58) | (58) | (58) | (58) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,741 | 2,055 | 2,425 | 2,860 | 3,370 | |
| Profit after tax | 637 | 1,050 | 1,239 | 1,462 | 1,724 | 2,032 |
| Dividends | (168) | (277) | (327) | (386) | (455) | (537) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 532 | (164) | (755) | (1,183) | (1,375) | (1,235) |
| Working capital | 3,186 | 3,742 | 4,395 | 5,162 | 6,064 | 7,123 |
| Net block and other assets | 17,768 | 18,681 | 19,531 | 20,269 | 20,828 | 21,125 |
| Debt | 392 | 392 | 392 | 392 | 392 | 392 |
| Equity | 14,202 | 14,974 | 15,887 | 16,963 | 18,232 | 19,728 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,272 | 1,501 | 1,770 | 2,086 | 2,457 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,691) | (1,765) | (1,812) | (1,823) | (1,781) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (277) | (327) | (386) | (455) | (537) | |
| Net change in cash | (696) | (591) | (429) | (192) | 140 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (419) | (264) | (42) | 263 | 676 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 17.5% | 9.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹393 | (84.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.