Models
TUTICORIN ALKAL CH & FE LTUTIALKAChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹25per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹25implied FY26 P/E 8.2× · EV/EBITDA 6.7×
Against CMP ₹59.80−59.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies23.4%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31133%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹11₹51
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (140) |
| PV of terminal value | 559 |
| Enterprise value | 419 |
| less net debt | (120) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 299 |
| ÷ 12.19 crore shares | ₹25 |
133% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 26 | 31 | 36 | 43 | 51 |
| 10.50% | 22 | 25 | 30 | 35 | 42 |
| 11.00% | 18 | 21 | 25 | 29 | 34 |
| 11.50% | 14 | 17 | 20 | 24 | 28 |
| 12.00% | 11 | 14 | 16 | 19 | 23 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹59.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 14 · 24 · 36 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.65 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.63 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.35 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 513 | 320 | 309 | 338 | 368 | 401 | 437 | 477 | 520 |
| growth % | 193.9 | (37.5) | (3.4) | 9.1 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| EBITDA | 83 | 71 | 85 | 62 | 68 | 74 | 81 | 88 | 96 |
| margin % | 16.3 | 22.3 | 27.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 |
| less depreciation | (4) | (4) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | (13) |
| EBIT | 80 | 67 | 78 | 54 | 59 | 64 | 70 | 76 | 83 |
| less tax on EBIT | (17) | (18) | (20) | (21) | (23) | (25) | |||
| NOPAT | 38 | 41 | 45 | 49 | 53 | 58 | |||
| add depreciation | 4 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| less capex | 0 | (17) | (76) | (134) | (146) | (122) | (93) | (58) | (16) |
| less working-capital build | — | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 14 | (4) | (84) | — | (97) | (69) | (35) | 6 | 54 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (92) | (59) | (27) | 4 | 34 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 120, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 54 | 59 | 64 | 70 | 76 | 83 |
| Interest at 6.1% on debt | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | |
| Profit before tax | 52 | 57 | 63 | 69 | 76 | |
| Profit after tax | 37 | 36 | 39 | 43 | 48 | 53 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | (101) | (175) | (215) | (214) | (166) |
| Working capital | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 16 |
| Net block and other assets | 610 | 746 | 859 | 941 | 987 | 989 |
| Debt | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 |
| Equity | 181 | 217 | 256 | 300 | 347 | 400 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 44 | 48 | 53 | 59 | 64 | |
| Investing (capex) | (146) | (122) | (93) | (58) | (16) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (102) | (74) | (40) | 1 | 49 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (102) | (74) | (40) | 1 | 49 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9% | 18.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹25 | (59.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.