Models
TVS MOTOR COMPANY LTDTVSMOTORAutomobiles
₹3,243per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹3,243implied FY26 P/E 45.0× · EV/EBITDA 21.8×
Against CMP ₹4,125.00−21.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies32.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3184%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹2,299₹5,131
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹3,228₹4,485
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 29,682 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,52,106 |
| Enterprise value | 1,81,789 |
| less net debt | (27,697) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,54,092 |
| ÷ 47.51 crore shares | ₹3,243 |
84% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 3,377 | 3,696 | 4,079 | 4,547 | 5,131 |
| 10.50% | 3,044 | 3,309 | 3,623 | 3,999 | 4,458 |
| 11.00% | 2,760 | 2,983 | 3,243 | 3,551 | 3,920 |
| 11.50% | 2,514 | 2,704 | 2,923 | 3,179 | 3,481 |
| 12.00% | 2,299 | 2,463 | 2,649 | 2,864 | 3,116 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹4,125.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 2,204 · 3,217 · 4,545 |
| Draws below the CMP | 81% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.41 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.38 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 31,974 | 39,145 | 44,089 | 56,070 | 71,208 | 90,435 | 1,14,852 | 1,45,862 | 1,85,245 |
| growth % | 31.3 | 22.4 | 12.6 | 27.2 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 |
| EBITDA | 4,066 | 5,543 | 6,649 | 8,343 | 10,610 | 13,475 | 17,113 | 21,733 | 27,601 |
| margin % | 12.7 | 14.2 | 15.1 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 |
| less depreciation | (859) | (975) | (1,046) | (1,273) | (1,638) | (2,080) | (2,642) | (3,355) | (4,261) |
| EBIT | 3,207 | 4,568 | 5,603 | 7,071 | 8,972 | 11,395 | 14,471 | 18,379 | 23,341 |
| less tax on EBIT | (2,376) | (3,015) | (3,829) | (4,862) | (6,175) | (7,843) | |||
| NOPAT | 4,695 | 5,958 | 7,566 | 9,609 | 12,203 | 15,498 | |||
| add depreciation | 859 | 975 | 1,046 | 1,273 | 1,638 | 2,080 | 2,642 | 3,355 | 4,261 |
| less capex | (1,341) | (1,145) | (2,478) | (3,235) | (4,130) | (4,558) | (4,916) | (5,134) | (5,113) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (5,746) | (2,398) | 1,025 | — | 3,465 | 5,088 | 7,335 | 10,424 | 14,646 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 3,289 | 4,351 | 5,650 | 7,234 | 9,157 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 31,624, dividends at 18.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 7,071 | 8,972 | 11,395 | 14,471 | 18,379 | 23,341 |
| Interest at 7.5% on debt | (2,372) | (2,372) | (2,372) | (2,372) | (2,372) | |
| Profit before tax | 6,600 | 9,023 | 12,100 | 16,007 | 20,969 | |
| Profit after tax | 3,018 | 4,383 | 5,991 | 8,034 | 10,629 | 13,923 |
| Dividends | (570) | (828) | (1,132) | (1,518) | (2,009) | (2,632) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3,926 | 4,989 | 7,370 | 11,611 | 18,451 | 28,891 |
| Working capital | (4,716) | (4,716) | (4,716) | (4,716) | (4,716) | (4,716) |
| Net block and other assets | 57,290 | 59,782 | 62,260 | 64,534 | 66,314 | 67,166 |
| Debt | 31,624 | 31,624 | 31,624 | 31,624 | 31,624 | 31,624 |
| Equity | 10,713 | 14,267 | 19,126 | 25,642 | 34,262 | 45,553 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 6,020 | 8,071 | 10,676 | 13,983 | 18,184 | |
| Investing (capex) | (4,130) | (4,558) | (4,916) | (5,134) | (5,113) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (828) | (1,132) | (1,518) | (2,009) | (2,632) | |
| Net change in cash | 1,062 | 2,381 | 4,242 | 6,840 | 10,440 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,890 | 3,513 | 5,760 | 8,849 | 13,071 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 27% | 14.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹3,243 | (21.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.