Models
TVS SRICHAKRA LIMITEDTVSSRICHAKAuto Components
₹-741per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(741)implied FY26 P/E (6.1)× · EV/EBITDA 0.6×
Against CMP ₹5,199.00−114.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY315%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(747)₹(731)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,872₹5,760
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 167 |
| PV of terminal value | 9 |
| Enterprise value | 175 |
| less net debt | (743) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (568) |
| ÷ 0.77 crore shares | ₹(741) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (738) | (736) | (735) | (733) | (731) |
| 10.50% | (740) | (739) | (738) | (737) | (735) |
| 11.00% | (743) | (742) | (741) | (740) | (739) |
| 11.50% | (745) | (744) | (744) | (743) | (742) |
| 12.00% | (747) | (747) | (746) | (745) | (744) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹5,199.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (1,560) · (737) · (58) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.59 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | +0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,985 | 2,926 | 3,254 | 3,643 | 4,081 | 4,570 | 5,119 | 5,733 | 6,421 |
| growth % | 18.1 | (2.0) | 11.2 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| EBITDA | 223 | 288 | 213 | 281 | 314 | 352 | 394 | 441 | 494 |
| margin % | 7.5 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 |
| less depreciation | (92) | (104) | (129) | (142) | (159) | (178) | (200) | (224) | (250) |
| EBIT | 132 | 184 | 84 | 139 | 155 | 174 | 195 | 218 | 244 |
| less tax on EBIT | (43) | (48) | (54) | (61) | (68) | (76) | |||
| NOPAT | 95 | 107 | 119 | 134 | 150 | 168 | |||
| add depreciation | 92 | 104 | 129 | 142 | 159 | 178 | 200 | 224 | 250 |
| less capex | (207) | (251) | (161) | (111) | (122) | (156) | (197) | (244) | (300) |
| less working-capital build | — | (74) | (83) | (93) | (104) | (117) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (2) | (23) | 36 | — | 69 | 58 | 44 | 25 | 1 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 66 | 50 | 34 | 17 | 1 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 763, dividends at 64.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 139 | 155 | 174 | 195 | 218 | 244 |
| Interest at 6.1% on debt | (47) | (47) | (47) | (47) | (47) | |
| Profit before tax | 109 | 127 | 148 | 171 | 197 | |
| Profit after tax | 20 | 75 | 87 | 102 | 118 | 136 |
| Dividends | (13) | (48) | (56) | (65) | (76) | (87) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 20 | 9 | (21) | (75) | (158) | (276) |
| Working capital | 620 | 694 | 777 | 871 | 975 | 1,092 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,403 | 2,367 | 2,345 | 2,342 | 2,362 | 2,412 |
| Debt | 763 | 763 | 763 | 763 | 763 | 763 |
| Equity | 1,190 | 1,217 | 1,248 | 1,285 | 1,327 | 1,376 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 159 | 182 | 208 | 237 | 269 | |
| Investing (capex) | (122) | (156) | (197) | (244) | (300) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (48) | (56) | (65) | (76) | (87) | |
| Net change in cash | (11) | (30) | (54) | (83) | (118) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 37 | 26 | 12 | (7) | (31) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12% | 7.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(741) | (114.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.