Models
TVS SUPPLY CHAIN SOL LTVSSCSTransport Services
₹37per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹37implied FY26 P/E 25.4× · EV/EBITDA 2.5×
Against CMP ₹130.68−71.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3138%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹31₹48
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹90₹147
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,316 |
| PV of terminal value | 821 |
| Enterprise value | 2,137 |
| less net debt | (497) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,640 |
| ÷ 44.15 crore shares | ₹37 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 38 | 40 | 42 | 45 | 48 |
| 10.50% | 36 | 38 | 40 | 42 | 44 |
| 11.00% | 34 | 36 | 37 | 39 | 41 |
| 11.50% | 33 | 34 | 35 | 37 | 38 |
| 12.00% | 31 | 32 | 33 | 35 | 36 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹130.68; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 6 · 37 · 66 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.99 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.09 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9,200 | 9,996 | 11,003 | 12,103 | 13,314 | 14,645 | 16,109 | 17,720 |
| growth % | — | 8.6 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| EBITDA | 669 | 696 | 859 | 944 | 1,038 | 1,142 | 1,257 | 1,382 |
| margin % | 7.3 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 |
| less depreciation | (557) | (544) | (570) | (629) | (692) | (762) | (838) | (921) |
| EBIT | 112 | 153 | 289 | 315 | 346 | 381 | 419 | 461 |
| less tax on EBIT | (88) | (96) | (106) | (117) | (128) | (141) | ||
| NOPAT | 200 | 218 | 240 | 264 | 291 | 320 | ||
| add depreciation | 557 | 544 | 570 | 629 | 692 | 762 | 838 | 921 |
| less capex | (124) | (175) | (278) | (303) | (457) | (640) | (855) | (1,106) |
| less working-capital build | — | (39) | (42) | (47) | (51) | (56) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 4 | 497 | — | 507 | 433 | 339 | 223 | 79 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 481 | 370 | 261 | 154 | 49 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,110, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 289 | 315 | 346 | 381 | 419 | 461 |
| Interest at 16% on debt | (178) | (178) | (178) | (178) | (178) | |
| Profit before tax | 137 | 169 | 203 | 241 | 283 | |
| Profit after tax | 114 | 95 | 117 | 141 | 167 | 196 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 613 | 996 | 1,306 | 1,522 | 1,621 | 1,577 |
| Working capital | 389 | 427 | 470 | 516 | 568 | 624 |
| Net block and other assets | 6,198 | 5,871 | 5,636 | 5,515 | 5,532 | 5,716 |
| Debt | 1,110 | 1,110 | 1,110 | 1,110 | 1,110 | 1,110 |
| Equity | 2,062 | 2,157 | 2,274 | 2,415 | 2,583 | 2,779 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 686 | 767 | 856 | 954 | 1,062 | |
| Investing (capex) | (303) | (457) | (640) | (855) | (1,106) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 383 | 310 | 216 | 99 | (44) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 383 | 310 | 216 | 99 | (44) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 10% | 7.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹37 | (71.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.