Models
UDAYSHIVAKUMAR INFRA LTDUSKConstruction
₹49per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹49implied FY26 P/E 22.3× · EV/EBITDA 22.4×
Against CMP ₹20.61+135.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3167%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹37₹72
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹19₹35
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 109 |
| PV of terminal value | 222 |
| Enterprise value | 331 |
| less net debt | (62) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 269 |
| ÷ 5.54 crore shares | ₹49 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 50 | 54 | 59 | 65 | 72 |
| 10.50% | 46 | 49 | 53 | 58 | 64 |
| 11.00% | 42 | 45 | 49 | 52 | 57 |
| 11.50% | 39 | 42 | 44 | 48 | 51 |
| 12.00% | 37 | 39 | 41 | 44 | 47 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹20.61; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 34 · 49 · 64 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.89 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.43 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 287 | 577 | 289 | 211 | 201 | 191 | 181 | 172 | 164 |
| growth % | — | 101.2 | (49.9) | (26.9) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 31 | 42 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| margin % | 10.9 | 7.3 | 0.9 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| less depreciation | (6) | (6) | (10) | (9) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (7) | (7) |
| EBIT | 25 | 36 | (7) | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| less tax on EBIT | 19 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 | |||
| NOPAT | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | |||
| add depreciation | 6 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| less capex | (15) | (4) | 0 | (3) | (3) | (4) | (6) | (7) | (8) |
| less working-capital build | — | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 5 | (56) | (21) | — | 34 | 30 | 27 | 24 | 21 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 32 | 26 | 21 | 17 | 13 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 77, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Interest at 12.4% on debt | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | |
| Profit before tax | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) | |
| Profit after tax | 2 | (17) | (18) | (19) | (20) | (21) |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 15 | 7 | (4) | (18) | (35) | (55) |
| Working capital | 73 | 69 | 65 | 62 | 59 | 56 |
| Net block and other assets | 278 | 272 | 269 | 267 | 267 | 268 |
| Debt | 77 | 77 | 77 | 77 | 77 | 77 |
| Equity | 170 | 154 | 136 | 116 | 96 | 75 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | (5) | (7) | (8) | (10) | (11) | |
| Investing (capex) | (3) | (4) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (8) | (11) | (14) | (17) | (20) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (8) | (11) | (14) | (17) | (20) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹49 | 135.5% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.