Models
UFO MOVIEZ INDIA LTD.UFOEntertainment
₹23per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹23implied FY26 P/E 3.7× · EV/EBITDA 2.0×
Against CMP ₹62.36−63.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹14₹40
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹54₹93
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 40 |
| PV of terminal value | 113 |
| Enterprise value | 153 |
| less net debt | (65) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 88 |
| ÷ 3.88 crore shares | ₹23 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 24 | 27 | 30 | 35 | 40 |
| 10.50% | 21 | 23 | 26 | 30 | 34 |
| 11.00% | 18 | 20 | 23 | 25 | 29 |
| 11.50% | 16 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 25 |
| 12.00% | 14 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 21 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹62.36; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (16) · 22 · 57 |
| Draws below the CMP | 93% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.96 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.25 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.11 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 396 | 408 | 422 | 482 | 549 | 626 | 714 | 814 | 928 |
| growth % | 147.2 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 14.1 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 |
| EBITDA | 32 | 64 | 58 | 76 | 86 | 98 | 112 | 128 | 146 |
| margin % | 8.1 | 15.8 | 13.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 |
| less depreciation | (50) | (43) | (39) | (41) | (47) | (53) | (61) | (69) | (79) |
| EBIT | (17) | 22 | 19 | 35 | 40 | 45 | 51 | 59 | 67 |
| less tax on EBIT | (11) | (13) | (14) | (16) | (19) | (21) | |||
| NOPAT | 24 | 27 | 31 | 35 | 40 | 45 | |||
| add depreciation | 50 | 43 | 39 | 41 | 47 | 53 | 61 | 69 | 79 |
| less capex | (28) | (30) | (47) | (46) | (53) | (61) | (71) | (82) | (95) |
| less working-capital build | — | (11) | (13) | (14) | (16) | (19) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (22) | 47 | 4 | — | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 77, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 35 | 40 | 45 | 51 | 59 | 67 |
| Interest at 18.4% on debt | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) | |
| Profit before tax | 25 | 31 | 37 | 44 | 53 | |
| Profit after tax | 25 | 17 | 21 | 25 | 30 | 36 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
| Working capital | 80 | 91 | 104 | 118 | 135 | 153 |
| Net block and other assets | 547 | 553 | 561 | 571 | 584 | 600 |
| Debt | 77 | 77 | 77 | 77 | 77 | 77 |
| Equity | 325 | 342 | 363 | 389 | 419 | 455 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 53 | 62 | 72 | 83 | 96 | |
| Investing (capex) | (53) | (61) | (71) | (82) | (95) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 14% | 15.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹23 | (63.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.