Models
ULTRAMARINE & PIGMENTS LULTRAMARChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹425per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹425implied FY26 P/E 15.4× · EV/EBITDA 10.4×
Against CMP ₹424.85−0.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies11.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3183%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹315₹644
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹364₹456
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 228 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,083 |
| Enterprise value | 1,311 |
| less net debt | (71) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,240 |
| ÷ 2.92 crore shares | ₹425 |
83% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 440 | 477 | 522 | 576 | 644 |
| 10.50% | 402 | 432 | 469 | 512 | 566 |
| 11.00% | 369 | 395 | 425 | 460 | 503 |
| 11.50% | 340 | 362 | 388 | 417 | 452 |
| 12.00% | 315 | 334 | 356 | 381 | 410 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹424.85; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 328 · 421 · 532 |
| Draws below the CMP | 52% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.73 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.55 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.31 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 557 | 561 | 695 | 775 | 864 | 963 | 1,074 | 1,197 | 1,335 |
| growth % | 13.5 | 0.7 | 23.9 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| EBITDA | 101 | 94 | 118 | 126 | 141 | 157 | 175 | 195 | 218 |
| margin % | 18.1 | 16.7 | 17.0 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 |
| less depreciation | (17) | (22) | (24) | (27) | (30) | (34) | (38) | (42) | (47) |
| EBIT | 84 | 72 | 94 | 99 | 111 | 123 | 137 | 153 | 171 |
| less tax on EBIT | (23) | (25) | (28) | (31) | (35) | (39) | |||
| NOPAT | 77 | 85 | 95 | 106 | 118 | 132 | |||
| add depreciation | 17 | 22 | 24 | 27 | 30 | 34 | 38 | 42 | 47 |
| less capex | (60) | (63) | (52) | (68) | (76) | (74) | (70) | (64) | (56) |
| less working-capital build | — | (12) | (13) | (15) | (16) | (18) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (1) | 15 | 38 | — | 28 | 42 | 59 | 80 | 104 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 26 | 36 | 46 | 55 | 65 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 79, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 99 | 111 | 123 | 137 | 153 | 171 |
| Interest at 7.4% on debt | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |
| Profit before tax | 105 | 117 | 132 | 147 | 165 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 81 | 91 | 102 | 114 | 127 |
| Dividends | (18) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 9 | 32 | 69 | 124 | 199 | 299 |
| Working capital | 103 | 115 | 128 | 143 | 159 | 177 |
| Net block and other assets | 982 | 1,028 | 1,068 | 1,100 | 1,122 | 1,132 |
| Debt | 79 | 79 | 79 | 79 | 79 | 79 |
| Equity | 870 | 951 | 1,041 | 1,143 | 1,257 | 1,384 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 99 | 111 | 124 | 139 | 156 | |
| Investing (capex) | (76) | (74) | (70) | (64) | (56) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 23 | 37 | 55 | 75 | 100 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 23 | 37 | 55 | 75 | 100 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11.5% | 16.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹425 | (0.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.