Models
ULTRATECH CEMENT LIMITEDULTRACEMCOCement & Cement Products
₹6,087per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹6,087implied FY26 P/E 21.0× · EV/EBITDA 12.0×
Against CMP ₹11,000.00−44.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies32.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3183%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹4,407₹9,446
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹10,325₹13,110
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 33,984 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,67,812 |
| Enterprise value | 2,01,796 |
| less net debt | (22,426) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,79,370 |
| ÷ 29.47 crore shares | ₹6,087 |
83% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 6,325 | 6,893 | 7,574 | 8,406 | 9,446 |
| 10.50% | 5,733 | 6,205 | 6,762 | 7,431 | 8,248 |
| 11.00% | 5,227 | 5,624 | 6,087 | 6,634 | 7,291 |
| 11.50% | 4,789 | 5,127 | 5,517 | 5,972 | 6,509 |
| 12.00% | 4,407 | 4,697 | 5,029 | 5,412 | 5,859 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹11,000.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 4,466 · 6,018 · 8,011 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.52 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 63,240 | 70,908 | 75,955 | 88,512 | 1,03,116 | 1,20,130 | 1,39,952 | 1,63,044 | 1,89,946 |
| growth % | 20.2 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 |
| EBITDA | 10,620 | 12,897 | 12,460 | 16,882 | 19,695 | 22,945 | 26,731 | 31,141 | 36,280 |
| margin % | 16.8 | 18.2 | 16.4 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 |
| less depreciation | (2,888) | (3,145) | (4,015) | (4,644) | (5,362) | (6,247) | (7,277) | (8,478) | (9,877) |
| EBIT | 7,732 | 9,751 | 8,445 | 12,237 | 14,333 | 16,698 | 19,453 | 22,663 | 26,402 |
| less tax on EBIT | (3,059) | (3,583) | (4,175) | (4,863) | (5,666) | (6,601) | |||
| NOPAT | 9,178 | 10,750 | 12,524 | 14,590 | 16,997 | 19,802 | |||
| add depreciation | 2,888 | 3,145 | 4,015 | 4,644 | 5,362 | 6,247 | 7,277 | 8,478 | 9,877 |
| less capex | (6,200) | (9,006) | (9,129) | (9,678) | (11,240) | (11,695) | (11,994) | (12,073) | (11,853) |
| less working-capital build | — | (905) | (1,055) | (1,229) | (1,432) | (1,668) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 2,868 | 1,892 | 1,544 | — | 3,967 | 6,021 | 8,645 | 11,970 | 16,158 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 3,765 | 5,148 | 6,659 | 8,308 | 10,103 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 22,781, dividends at 27.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 12,237 | 14,333 | 16,698 | 19,453 | 22,663 | 26,402 |
| Interest at 8.2% on debt | (1,868) | (1,868) | (1,868) | (1,868) | (1,868) | |
| Profit before tax | 12,465 | 14,830 | 17,585 | 20,795 | 24,534 | |
| Profit after tax | 8,166 | 9,349 | 11,123 | 13,189 | 15,596 | 18,401 |
| Dividends | (2,273) | (2,599) | (3,092) | (3,667) | (4,336) | (5,115) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 354 | 321 | 1,849 | 5,426 | 11,660 | 21,302 |
| Working capital | 5,480 | 6,386 | 7,441 | 8,670 | 10,101 | 11,769 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,35,541 | 1,41,419 | 1,46,867 | 1,51,583 | 1,55,178 | 1,57,154 |
| Debt | 22,781 | 22,781 | 22,781 | 22,781 | 22,781 | 22,781 |
| Equity | 80,712 | 87,462 | 95,493 | 1,05,015 | 1,16,276 | 1,29,561 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 13,805 | 16,314 | 19,237 | 22,643 | 26,610 | |
| Investing (capex) | (11,240) | (11,695) | (11,994) | (12,073) | (11,853) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2,599) | (3,092) | (3,667) | (4,336) | (5,115) | |
| Net change in cash | (33) | 1,528 | 3,577 | 6,234 | 9,642 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2,566 | 4,620 | 7,244 | 10,569 | 14,757 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 16.5% | 19.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹6,087 | (44.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.