UNIMECH AEROSPACE N MFG L — valuation model

UNIMECH AEROSPACE N MFG LUNIMECHAerospace & Defense

₹76per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹76implied FY26 P/E 5.3× · EV/EBITDA 6.1×

Against CMP ₹1,610.00−95.3%close of 2026-09-10

Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹56₹115

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹695₹1,653

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	122
PV of terminal value	337
Enterprise value	459
less net debt	(75)
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	384
÷ 5.09 crore shares	₹76

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	78	85	93	103	115
10.50%	72	77	83	91	101
11.00%	66	70	76	82	90
11.50%	60	64	69	74	80
12.00%	56	59	63	68	73

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,610.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	58 · 76 · 96
Draws below the CMP	100%
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.82
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.55
Rank correlation with revenue growth	−0.02

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	243	240	238	236	233	231	229
growth %	—	(1.0)	(1.0)	(1.0)	(1.0)	(1.0)	(1.0)
EBITDA	92	75	74	74	73	72	71
margin %	37.9	31.2	31.2	31.2	31.2	31.2	31.2
less depreciation	(11)	(26)	(26)	(26)	(25)	(25)	(25)
EBIT	81	49	48	48	47	47	46
less tax on EBIT		(10)	(10)	(10)	(10)	(10)	(10)
NOPAT		39	38	38	38	37	37
add depreciation	11	26	26	26	25	25	25
less capex	(131)	(35)	(35)	(33)	(32)	(31)	(30)
less working-capital build		—	1	1	1	1	1
Free cash flow to firm	(49)	—	30	31	31	32	32
Discount factor			0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value			29	26	24	22	20

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 112, dividends at 0% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	49	48	48	47	47	46
Interest at 16.8% on debt		(19)	(19)	(19)	(19)	(19)
Profit before tax		30	29	29	28	28
Profit after tax	63	23	23	23	22	22
Dividends	0	0	0	0	0	0
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	37	53	69	85	102	120
Working capital	71	70	70	69	68	68
Net block and other assets	815	824	832	838	844	849
Debt	112	112	112	112	112	112
Equity	737	761	784	806	829	850
Balance check	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cash flow
From operations		50	49	49	48	47
Investing (capex)		(35)	(33)	(32)	(31)	(30)
Financing (dividends)		0	0	0	0	0
Net change in cash		16	16	17	17	18
Free cash flow to equity		16	16	17	17	18

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	-1%	31.2%	11.00%	5%	₹76	(95.3)%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.