Models
UNITED BREWERIES LTDUBLBeverages
₹194per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹194implied FY26 P/E 13.0× · EV/EBITDA 6.8×
Against CMP ₹1,255.00−84.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹145₹292
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,245₹1,848
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,498 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,351 |
| Enterprise value | 5,848 |
| less net debt | (715) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,133 |
| ÷ 26.44 crore shares | ₹194 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 201 | 218 | 237 | 261 | 292 |
| 10.50% | 184 | 198 | 214 | 233 | 257 |
| 11.00% | 169 | 181 | 194 | 210 | 229 |
| 11.50% | 156 | 166 | 178 | 191 | 206 |
| 12.00% | 145 | 154 | 163 | 174 | 187 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,255.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 159 · 194 · 236 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.70 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 16,651 | 18,380 | 19,409 | 17,463 | 16,590 | 15,761 | 14,973 | 14,224 | 13,513 |
| growth % | 26.9 | 10.4 | 5.6 | (10.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 583 | 696 | 815 | 861 | 813 | 772 | 734 | 697 | 662 |
| margin % | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| less depreciation | (211) | (212) | (233) | (272) | (265) | (252) | (240) | (228) | (216) |
| EBIT | 373 | 484 | 582 | 589 | 547 | 520 | 494 | 469 | 446 |
| less tax on EBIT | (156) | (145) | (138) | (131) | (124) | (118) | |||
| NOPAT | 433 | 402 | 382 | 363 | 345 | 328 | |||
| add depreciation | 211 | 212 | 233 | 272 | 265 | 252 | 240 | 228 | 216 |
| less capex | (156) | (192) | (258) | (512) | (481) | (418) | (361) | (308) | (259) |
| less working-capital build | — | 165 | 157 | 149 | 141 | 134 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (276) | (114) | (23) | — | 352 | 373 | 391 | 406 | 419 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 334 | 319 | 301 | 282 | 262 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,175, dividends at 60.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 589 | 547 | 520 | 494 | 469 | 446 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (94) | (94) | (94) | (94) | (94) | |
| Profit before tax | 453 | 426 | 400 | 375 | 352 | |
| Profit after tax | 413 | 333 | 313 | 294 | 276 | 259 |
| Dividends | (249) | (201) | (189) | (177) | (166) | (156) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 460 | 542 | 657 | 801 | 972 | 1,166 |
| Working capital | 3,297 | 3,132 | 2,975 | 2,826 | 2,684 | 2,550 |
| Net block and other assets | 5,936 | 6,152 | 6,318 | 6,439 | 6,520 | 6,563 |
| Debt | 1,175 | 1,175 | 1,175 | 1,175 | 1,175 | 1,175 |
| Equity | 4,528 | 4,660 | 4,784 | 4,901 | 5,011 | 5,113 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 764 | 722 | 683 | 645 | 609 | |
| Investing (capex) | (481) | (418) | (361) | (308) | (259) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (201) | (189) | (177) | (166) | (156) | |
| Net change in cash | 82 | 115 | 144 | 171 | 194 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 283 | 304 | 322 | 337 | 350 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 4.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹194 | (84.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.