Models
UNITED POLYFAB GUJ. LTD.UNITEDPOLYTextiles & Apparels
₹13per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹13implied FY26 P/E 15.6× · EV/EBITDA 7.4×
Against CMP ₹42.95−70.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3171%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹9₹20
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹21₹51
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 115 |
| PV of terminal value | 278 |
| Enterprise value | 393 |
| less net debt | (106) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 287 |
| ÷ 22.95 crore shares | ₹13 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 13 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 20 |
| 10.50% | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 17 |
| 11.00% | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| 11.50% | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| 12.00% | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹42.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 7 · 12 · 18 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.88 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.34 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.27 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 908 | 602 | 682 | 774 | 879 | 997 | 1,132 | 1,285 |
| growth % | — | (33.7) | 13.3 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 |
| EBITDA | 31 | 43 | 53 | 60 | 68 | 77 | 87 | 99 |
| margin % | 3.4 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 |
| less depreciation | (13) | (13) | (13) | (15) | (17) | (19) | (22) | (24) |
| EBIT | 19 | 30 | 40 | 45 | 51 | 58 | 66 | 75 |
| less tax on EBIT | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (13) | (15) | ||
| NOPAT | 32 | 36 | 41 | 46 | 53 | 60 | ||
| add depreciation | 13 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 22 | 24 |
| less capex | (26) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (8) | (13) | (20) | (29) |
| less working-capital build | — | (17) | (19) | (22) | (25) | (28) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | (25) | 17 | — | 31 | 31 | 30 | 29 | 27 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 29 | 26 | 23 | 20 | 17 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 106, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 40 | 45 | 51 | 58 | 66 | 75 |
| Interest at 9% on debt | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | |
| Profit before tax | 35 | 41 | 48 | 56 | 65 | |
| Profit after tax | 24 | 28 | 33 | 39 | 45 | 52 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 24 | 47 | 69 | 90 | 109 |
| Working capital | 125 | 142 | 162 | 183 | 208 | 236 |
| Net block and other assets | 147 | 135 | 126 | 121 | 120 | 125 |
| Debt | 106 | 106 | 106 | 106 | 106 | 106 |
| Equity | 133 | 161 | 194 | 233 | 278 | 330 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 26 | 31 | 36 | 42 | 48 | |
| Investing (capex) | (3) | (8) | (13) | (20) | (29) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 23 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 19 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 23 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 19 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 13.5% | 7.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹13 | (70.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.