Models
UNITED SPIRITS LIMITEDUNITDSPRBeverages
₹306per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹306implied FY26 P/E 11.5× · EV/EBITDA 9.7×
Against CMP ₹1,395.00−78.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹242₹432
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,211₹1,563
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 5,859 |
| PV of terminal value | 15,454 |
| Enterprise value | 21,313 |
| less net debt | 853 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 22,166 |
| ÷ 72.50 crore shares | ₹306 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 315 | 336 | 362 | 393 | 432 |
| 10.50% | 293 | 310 | 331 | 356 | 387 |
| 11.00% | 274 | 288 | 306 | 326 | 351 |
| 11.50% | 257 | 270 | 284 | 301 | 321 |
| 12.00% | 242 | 253 | 266 | 280 | 297 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,395.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 259 · 304 · 358 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.67 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 27,815 | 26,018 | 27,276 | 27,816 | 28,372 | 28,940 | 29,519 | 30,109 | 30,711 |
| growth % | (10.5) | (6.5) | 4.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,593 | 1,984 | 2,178 | 2,195 | 2,241 | 2,286 | 2,332 | 2,379 | 2,426 |
| margin % | 5.7 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 |
| less depreciation | (283) | (275) | (283) | (289) | (284) | (289) | (295) | (301) | (307) |
| EBIT | 1,311 | 1,709 | 1,895 | 1,906 | 1,958 | 1,997 | 2,037 | 2,078 | 2,119 |
| less tax on EBIT | (436) | (448) | (457) | (466) | (476) | (485) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,470 | 1,509 | 1,540 | 1,570 | 1,602 | 1,634 | |||
| add depreciation | 283 | 275 | 283 | 289 | 284 | 289 | 295 | 301 | 307 |
| less capex | (137) | (98) | (162) | (181) | (199) | (239) | (280) | (324) | (369) |
| less working-capital build | — | (78) | (79) | (81) | (83) | (84) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 478 | 1,020 | 1,785 | — | 1,517 | 1,511 | 1,504 | 1,497 | 1,488 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,440 | 1,292 | 1,159 | 1,039 | 930 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 6, dividends at 68.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,906 | 1,958 | 1,997 | 2,037 | 2,078 | 2,119 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,957 | 1,996 | 2,036 | 2,077 | 2,119 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,838 | 1,509 | 1,539 | 1,570 | 1,601 | 1,633 |
| Dividends | (1,263) | (1,037) | (1,057) | (1,079) | (1,100) | (1,122) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 859 | 1,339 | 1,792 | 2,217 | 2,613 | 2,978 |
| Working capital | 3,894 | 3,972 | 4,052 | 4,133 | 4,215 | 4,300 |
| Net block and other assets | 9,716 | 9,631 | 9,580 | 9,565 | 9,588 | 9,649 |
| Debt | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Equity | 8,957 | 9,429 | 9,911 | 10,402 | 10,904 | 11,415 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,715 | 1,749 | 1,784 | 1,820 | 1,856 | |
| Investing (capex) | (199) | (239) | (280) | (324) | (369) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1,037) | (1,057) | (1,079) | (1,100) | (1,122) | |
| Net change in cash | 480 | 453 | 425 | 396 | 366 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,516 | 1,510 | 1,504 | 1,496 | 1,488 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 2% | 7.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹306 | (78.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.